Central Asia needs an estimated $33 billion in annual infrastructure investment, and the air cargo market serving the region cannot yet handle what that spending generates. Speaking at the Central Asia Air Cargo Summit, Gerhard Coetzee, Vice President Cargo – IMEA at charter specialist Chapman Freeborn, said booming mining, energy, infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are exposing a widening gap between the capacity on sale and the capacity the region's industries actually require.

The numbers behind the shift are substantial. Trade flowing through the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030, and each of the region's growth sectors produces a distinct cargo profile — heavy, oversized, time-critical and project freight that scheduled networks were never designed to move.

"The important point is that cargo demand is increasingly being generated inside Central Asia — rather than simply passing through it," Coetzee said. "Every one of these sectors creates a different type of cargo requirement, and not all of that cargo can move efficiently through a scheduled network."

Why more connectivity is not enough

Air links between Central Asia and major global markets are improving. China is building deeper connections with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and scheduled services to Europe are developing. But connectivity alone does not solve the problem of suitability. The question for shippers is whether the right aircraft is available for the cargo, the route and the deadline.

For project cargo, that question becomes decisive. An aircraft may have enough available payload, yet the cargo may be too large for the aircraft type. The route may not be available at the required time. The airports involved may lack the infrastructure to handle the movement at all.

For larger freighters — the B747F, B777F or AN-124 — airport infrastructure and ground handling determine whether a flight is even executable. A 70-tonne transformer or 16-metre pipes need suitable loading equipment, runway capability and specialist handling. Permits and regulatory approvals add another layer, while winter weather and de-icing affect both timing and operating cost.

"There is an air cargo network, but it isn't necessarily designed around the cargo that these new industries are generating," Coetzee said.

The commercial consequences fall hardest on project owners. A delayed critical component can hold up installation, construction or production, making the cost of downtime far more significant than the spread between scheduled airfreight rates and a charter price. For mining, energy and infrastructure projects, choosing the wrong capacity option carries penalties well beyond the shipment itself.

What does matching the aircraft to the cargo look like?

A previous Chapman Freeborn energy project shows the planning involved. The company moved urgent manufacturing cargo that included 12-metre manifolds requiring purpose-built 12 m × 4 m × 2.4 m transport frames.

The operation split across two aircraft: a Boeing 767 carried the smaller pieces, while an AN-124 transported the oversized manifolds. Both flights delivered within the required timeframes and the cargo reached the project site.

The movement took place outside Central Asia, but it illustrates a problem now central to the region: the solution has to be built around the cargo, not around whatever aircraft capacity happens to be available.

"Aircraft selection isn't about which aircraft is the biggest. It's about selecting the most efficient aircraft for the mission," Coetzee said.

In practice, that means splitting a single movement between aircraft types, or using dedicated charter only for the portion of a shipment the scheduled network cannot absorb. Forwarders and charter brokers who can engineer those hybrid solutions hold the commercial edge as Central Asian project pipelines thicken.

Can charter become a planning tool rather than a rescue mission?

Charter complements rather than replaces scheduled airfreight. It earns its place when the scheduled network cannot meet a shipment's weight, dimensions, timing, destination or operational complexity.

The larger opportunity lies upstream. For major mining, energy and infrastructure projects, aircraft requirements, airport capability, permits and potential capacity gaps can be assessed during the planning stage — before the cargo is ready to move. That converts charter from a last-minute response into one of the project's standing capacity options.

It also buys shippers time. With a fixed deadline still distant, they can compare aircraft, routes and handling requirements; once the deadline looms, those choices disappear.

As Central Asia integrates further into global supply chains, the test for carriers, forwarders and project shippers alike will not be how much air cargo capacity exists in the region. It will be whether companies can access the right capacity, in the right place, at the point their project requires it — and on current infrastructure trajectories, that gap will define the region's charter market for years to come.