Central Asia requires roughly $33bn in annual infrastructure investment as air cargo demand from mining, energy, manufacturing and construction outpaces the scheduled network's ability to move it, Chapman Freeborn's Gerhard Coetzee told the Central Asia Air Cargo Summit.

The vice president of cargo for the India, Middle East and Africa region at the UK-headquartered charter broker said the region is now generating cargo from within its own borders rather than serving purely as a transit corridor. "The important point is that cargo demand is increasingly being generated inside Central Asia – rather than simply passing through it," Coetzee said.

Trade through the so-called Middle Corridor is projected to triple by 2030, framing a capacity question that extends well beyond raw aircraft availability.

What is driving the demand spike?

Growth is concentrated in four heavy-lift sectors, each with distinct cargo characteristics:

• Mining and energy
• Large-scale infrastructure
• Manufacturing expansion
• Time-critical project shipments

Every one of these sectors creates a different type of cargo requirement, and not all of that cargo can move efficiently through a scheduled network, Coetzee said. A 70-tonne transformer bound for a remote mining site or 16-metre pipes for an energy project cannot wait for the next scheduled bellyhold connection.

Why does the scheduled network fall short?

Connectivity into and out of Central Asia is improving. Chinese carriers have deepened links with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and scheduled services to Europe are expanding. Yet available payload, aircraft type and airport infrastructure often fail to align with project requirements.

An aircraft may have sufficient weight capacity, but the cargo may be too large for the aircraft type, the required route may not be available at the right time, or the airports involved may not have the infrastructure to handle the movement, Coetzee told delegates.

Bigger freighters such as Boeing 747s, Boeing 777s and AN-124s face airport constraints on runway length, loading equipment and specialist handling. Permits, regulatory approvals, winter weather and de-icing add further layers to operating cost and schedule risk.

What does this mean for charter operators and shippers?

For forwarders and project shippers, the gap between network schedules and project deadlines is creating a structural opportunity for ad-hoc chartering. Chapman Freeborn and competitors are positioning around the Middle Corridor as a route that avoids Red Sea disruption and Middle East conflict exposure.

"There is an air cargo network, but it isn't necessarily designed around the cargo that these new industries are generating," Coetzee said.

Chinese e-commerce platforms are also routing some US-bound shipments through Central Asia, layering high-volume general cargo on top of project demand and tightening slot availability at regional hubs.

What is the outlook?

The forward curve points to tighter competition for the right aircraft, in the right airport configuration, at the right time. Coetzee framed the challenge not as overall tonnage but as access: whether companies can secure suitable capacity the moment a project demands it.

With Middle Corridor volumes set to triple by 2030 and roughly $33bn in annual infrastructure spend in motion, charter brokers expect project cargo enquiries from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to keep climbing through 2025 and into the next planning cycle.