Carrier Emissions Intensity Gap Hits 35% on Major Trade Lanes

Container carriers running the same trade lane differ in emissions intensity by as much as 35%, according to VesselBot's latest quarterly analysis — a spread with direct cost consequences for shippers facing EU ETS and FuelEU exposure.

The report examined 83,817 voyages by 6,730 container-carrying vessels in the third quarter of 2026, assessing sailing patterns, vessel deployment, cargo utilisation and time spent at sea and in port. Across the four major fronthaul routes compared, the gap between the most and least efficient carriers ranged from 20% to 35%.

Fleet-wide average Well-to-Wake emissions intensity held broadly stable at 235.1 grams of CO₂ equivalent per TEU-kilometre, up 0.5% year on year. Total emissions fell 1.9% to 55.5 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, while transport work rose 1.2% to 712 billion TEU-kilometres.

For shippers, the message is blunt: choosing between carriers on the same lane can change reported supply-chain emissions by a third.

What drives the differences?

Absolute emissions tell only part of the story. On direct voyages from China and East Asia to Northern Europe, Evergreen generated the highest average emissions of the three carriers examined, at 14,273 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per voyage. Yet Evergreen also posted the lowest emissions intensity on the lane, at 47.4 grams per TEU-kilometre — roughly 17% below the trade-lane average of 57.3 grams.

The explanation is volume. Evergreen's vessels moved an average of 20,400 TEU per voyage at 96% utilisation. A fuller ship burns more fuel in total terms but less per container moved, which is the metric that matters for intensity-based reporting and carbon accounting.

Utilisation held across the dataset as the strongest lever. Voyages recording intensity below 50 grams averaged 80% utilisation, against just 32% for voyages producing at least 800 grams.

Why did feeders get dirtier?

Five of the six vessel-size categories examined improved their intensity in the quarter. Gains ranged from 3.4% for Panamax vessels to 12.9% for Very Large Container Ships. Feeders moved the other way, with average intensity rising 1.3% to 285.9 grams of CO₂ equivalent per TEU-kilometre.

Feeders accounted for 65% of all tracked voyages, and that sheer share of activity kept the overall fleet average broadly flat despite improvements among larger classes. Feeder and Panamax vessels operated 2,012 of the 2,226 voyages in the highest-intensity group. By contrast, Neo-Panamax and VLCS vessels represented only 7% of voyages but generated 43% of total transport work.

For forwarders building green claims into tenders, the intra-regional leg — not the deep-sea haul — is increasingly where the intensity problem sits.

Has the Suez return shortened voyages?

Not yet. Some 166 medium and large container vessels transited the Suez Canal between July and September 2026, against just 16 in the same period last year. Yet average voyage duration on Asia–Northern Europe held at 33.2 days, with China and East Asia to the Mediterranean at 29.7 days. VesselBot attributed the limited change to most vessels still routing via the Cape of Good Hope.

Port congestion worsened on the Atlantic. Average port time on the Northern Europe–North America East Coast trade rose 52.1% to 2.1 days.

"An average emissions figure may tell us whether the overall market is improving or deteriorating, but it cannot explain what is happening on individual voyages," said Constantine Komodromos, Founder and CEO of VesselBot. "By examining vessel deployment, actual sailing patterns, cargo utilisation and time spent at sea and in port, we can identify what drives those outcomes."

The analysis combines AIS vessel-tracking data with vessel-specific digital twin models to estimate fuel consumption and Well-to-Wake emissions at voyage level. As EU ETS costs scale with verified voyage emissions, expect shippers and carriers to lean harder on precisely this kind of per-voyage data — and on the utilisation gains it rewards.