Black Sea sunflower oil exports will run roughly half of their usual pace out of Ukraine between October and March, with Russian flows down 25-37% year on year, executives from both producing countries told the Globoil vegetable oils conference in Mumbai on September 30.

The projection from Andrii Paladii, president and trading director for vegetable oils and proteins at Inerco Trade SA, points to 300,000 metric tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil moving between October and March — almost half the country's typical six-month outflow from the Black Sea and Azov Sea basin.

"We expect around 300,000 metric tons of sunflower oil to flow out of Ukraine from October to March, which is almost half of the usual outflows from Ukraine," Paladii said on a panel.

Why are exports lagging?

Military strikes in August and September damaged storage and terminal infrastructure across Black Sea and Azov Sea ports, the two largest sunflower oil suppliers' shared export chokepoints. Vessel loading has been delayed at both Ukrainian and Russian terminals, and Ukraine's logistics recovery, while visible in October, has not yet restored pre-war throughput.

Paladii put Indian buyers on track to take 700,000 metric tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil in MY 2026-27. Europe, he added, will remain Ukraine's largest demand center for the edible oil, a continuation of the post-2022 trade reroute that has kept Danube and continental EU hubs supplied while Red Sea-bound volumes stayed minimal.

How far behind are Russian volumes?

Russian exports are tracking below the prior marketing year's cadence, according to Anton Gritsay, executive director of EFKO, one of Russia's principal vegetable oil refiners and exporters. He detailed the multi-lane Russian flow:

• Baltic ports: 150,000-170,000 metric tons
• Rail to China: 50,000-70,000 metric tons per month, contingent on flexibag container availability
• Caspian Sea ports: 50,000-70,000 metric tons

Combined Russian sunflower oil outflows are estimated at 250,000-300,000 metric tons per month between October and March, down from roughly 400,000 metric tons a year earlier — a 25-37% year-on-year contraction across the principal export lanes.

Who is still buying?

India will remain Russia's largest customer, with imports projected at 2 million-2.5 million metric tons in MY 2026-27. Turkey is on track for another 1 million metric tons, primarily routed through Black Sea and Mediterranean feeder services.

India is the world's largest vegetable oil buyer, followed by China. The Solvents Extractors' Association of India reported the country's first 10 months of MY 2026-27 (November-October) sunflower oil imports at 2.515 million metric tons, up from 2.4 million metric tons in MY 2025-26 — a 4.8% increase that masks a heavy dependence on the damaged Black Sea supply base.

Where are prices heading?

Gritsay forecast sunflower oil at around $1,450/metric ton for the current marketing year. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed FOB Black Sea Ukraine for November loading unchanged at $1,130/metric ton on September 29, leaving a $320/metric ton wedge between the Russian ex-refinery outlook and the spot Black Sea benchmark.

For shippers, forwarders and edible oil traders, the squeeze translates into tighter tonnage allocations at damaged terminals, prolonged wait times for flexibag-equipped rail wagons on the Russia-China corridor, and a widening premium for prompt Indian and Turkish delivery. With Ukrainian logistics still rebuilding and Russian rail tied to flexibag availability, sunflower oil trade flows from the Black Sea region will likely remain suppressed through at least the first half of MY 2026-27, sustaining price pressure for the largest importing markets in Asia and the Mediterranean.