Asia-US rates hold $5,500 above pre-peak as carriers chase $3,000 hikes

Trans-Pacific ocean rates remain roughly $5,500 per FEU above their pre-peak levels, and carriers are now seeking increases of $2,000–$3,000 per FEU for November — even as forwarders report improving space availability and more consistent vessel schedules that cast doubt on whether the hikes will stick. Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO), an analyst and SONAR data contributor, laid out the numbers in its latest market update.

Asia–U.S. East Coast rates stood at about $9,900/FEU, down 6% week over week but still roughly $200 above their level two weeks earlier. West Coast rates held near $8,300/FEU, a range they climbed into during September.

What could a Local 26 strike do to LA-Long Beach?

A potential watchmen's strike at Los Angeles and Long Beach adds another layer of uncertainty for shippers. The Pacific Maritime Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26 extended their agreement through 5 p.m. Pacific Time on November 4, postponing a possible November 1 walkout while negotiations continue under federal mediation. The watchmen's previous contract expired in July 2025.

Sources told FreightWaves that talks were still under way as of Wednesday.

Local 26 represents approximately 250 workers who provide terminal security services. Its membership is small, but the operational exposure is not: according to the Pacific Maritime Association, the affected facilities handle roughly 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo. Employers have also warned that other ILWU members could honor picket lines, potentially interrupting vessel, yard and gate operations.

Why are Asia-Europe rates rising against expectations?

On the other side of the world, Asia–Europe container rates have risen over the past month despite expectations of weaker post-peak demand and a growing return to Red Sea routing. Rates to Northern Europe have climbed 10% over the past month, while Mediterranean prices have gained 23%, Freightos reported. Congestion at Northern European hubs and lingering cargo backlogs in the Far East appear to be supporting prices.

Weekly readings show the detail: Mediterranean rates rose 3% last week to $4,375/FEU, while Northern Europe prices were broadly unchanged at $3,595/FEU.

A coordinated labor action on October 30 also threatened disruption across European and other ports. More than 25 unions organized strikes and demonstrations at 113 ports across 22 countries and territories, although the impact varied — some locations held demonstrations rather than stopping cargo operations.

Can carriers make the November GRIs stick?

Carriers planned general rate increases of $1,000–$1,500/FEU on Asia–Europe lanes at the start of November, with further increases planned for mid-month. Daily rates were flat in the opening days of the week, leaving the outcome uncertain.

Published reports found carriers were discounting early-November bookings even as they announced higher tariffs, with Linerlytica describing the November 1 Asia–Northern Europe increase as "effectively doomed." Carriers are also seeking stronger spot prices during the annual contract tendering season, when those levels help guide negotiations.

Red Sea shift is releasing capacity

The rate gains have coincided with an accelerating return to the shorter Suez Canal–Red Sea route. Premier Alliance is adding two Asia–Mediterranean services to its Suez network in November, following earlier decisions to restore other services through the Red Sea. The shift is beginning to release vessels previously needed for longer sailings around Africa, although congestion continues to absorb capacity on Asia–Northern Europe services.

The two major east–west trades have followed sharply different paths. Asia–Europe prices fell $2,000–$3,000/FEU between July and September, returning close to their mid-May, pre-peak baseline before recovering in October. Trans-Pacific prices, by contrast, still sit about $5,500/FEU above pre-peak levels.

That resilience — including through China's Golden Week holiday — leaves a relatively short window for a substantial correction before demand is expected to strengthen ahead of Lunar New Year. A return to pre-peak trans-Pacific pricing before the next seasonal upswing therefore remains uncertain.

For importers, the stakes are straightforward: high shipping costs and uncertain delivery times persist despite cooling demand, complicating budgets and inventory planning, and a port strike on the U.S. West Coast could add delays and further limit relief.