Asia Pacific Air Cargo Volumes Jump 9% as Golden Week Rebound Bites

Air cargo tonnages out of Asia Pacific jumped 9% week on week in the seven days to 18 October, driving a 2% increase in global volumes as the post-Golden Week rebound took hold — while every other origin region declined.

The figures come from WorldACD, which described the Asia Pacific export surge as being in "sharp contrast" to retreats elsewhere. For shippers and forwarders, the divergence matters: capacity out of Asia is tightening into peak season just as demand from the region accelerates, and rates are following.

Where did volumes fall?

The pullback outside Asia was broad but modest. WorldACD reported a 5% decline in chargeable weight from North America, which the data provider attributed partly to holidays — Canada's Thanksgiving and the US Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day. Central and South America shrank 4%, also linked to 12 October national holiday celebrations. The Middle East and South Asia region lost 3%, Europe 2% and Africa 1%.

None of these declines signals structural weakness on its own. Taken together, though, they underline how much of the market's momentum now rests on Asia Pacific shoulders.

How strong is the transpacific lane?

Strong, by WorldACD's numbers, and getting stronger. Asia Pacific–US tonnages rose 10% week on week, with increases from every Asian origin except Japan. Hong Kong led the recovery with a 27% jump, followed by China at 18%.

The year-on-year picture is more striking still: transpacific volumes from Asia Pacific were up 14% against the same week in 2024. WorldACD said this "reflects the ongoing strength of AI-related traffic crossing the Pacific" — a demand driver that keeps defying expectations of a slowdown in freighter and belly capacity absorption.

To Europe, the weekly rebound was even sharper in places. South Korea posted a 34% week-on-week improvement to Europe, China rose 22%, Singapore 16% and Hong Kong 11%. Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia all retreated.

What explains the Europe weakness?

The headline number is hard to miss: Asia Pacific–Europe volumes were down 16% year on year for the week. Hong Kong accounted for the steepest fall at -32%, a decline WorldACD tied directly to "the European Union's moves to curtail imports of e-commerce parcels." China was 12% lower year on year and Vietnam 10% lower. South Korea, up 14%, was the only origin posting a double-digit year-on-year increase in chargeable weight to Europe.

For carriers and forwarders serving the China–Europe e-commerce trade, that is a policy-driven contraction, not a cyclical one — and it is set to deepen.

Rates climb almost everywhere

Airfreight rates rose week on week from every region except Africa in the week to 18 October. Asia Pacific rates gained 4%, Central and South America 3%, Middle East and South Asia 2%, and both Europe and North America 1%. Africa was the outlier, down 4%.

The 4% rise out of Asia Pacific, landing on top of a 9% volume increase, indicates demand is outrunning capacity on the key outbound lanes — a combination that typically emboldens carriers heading into November and December.

What lies ahead for peak season?

WorldACD sees two diverging trajectories. On the transpacific, it noted that "the strength of AI-related flows has prompted predictions of a strong peak season ahead." That forecast carries weight given the 14% annual growth already on the board, though predictions of peak-season strength have missed before when capacity surged.

Europe is the harder read. From 1 November, the EU will apply a €2 handling fee to non-EU e-commerce imports — stacking on top of the flat €3 customs duty per item that has applied to low-value consignments up to €150 since 1 July. Each additional per-parcel cost erodes the economics of direct-from-Asia e-commerce airfreight, and the -32% Hong Kong–Europe figure suggests shippers are already rerouting or recalibrating. How much further demand compresses after 1 November is the question carriers on that lane will be watching.