Global air cargo tonnages rebounded sharply in September, with Asia Pacific and North America origins posting 10% year-on-year growth, Middle East & South Asia up 9%, Europe and Africa up 8%, and Central & South America up 5%, according to World ACD Market Data.

The recovery came despite geopolitical and economic headwinds, compounded by a July slump in e-commerce volumes after the EU scrapped low value goods exemptions on lanes from Asia to Europe — Hong Kong and southern China in particular.

What did Q3 deliver?

Quarter three delivered 3% growth in worldwide tonnages versus Q2 and a 6% increase against Q3 last year, driven by all major origin regions. Average worldwide rates fell 7% from their severely disrupted Q2 highs, when the US-Iran conflict distorted markets, but stood 24% higher than a year earlier.

Year-to-date, January through September 2026, tonnages are up 5% YoY and average full-market rates are up 22%.

How is capacity tracking?

Capacity was relatively stable last month. Fluctuations reflected holiday periods and Middle East volatility. In week 40 (28 September to 4 October), worldwide capacity was up around 4% YoY — freighter capacity up 7%, passenger bellyhold up 2%.

Versus late February (week 7), before the US-Iran conflict began, global capacity is up roughly 2%. But capacity to and from MESA is down about 10%, Gulf-area capacity is down 17%, and South Asia outbound capacity is nearly flat at -1%.

What is happening on China-Europe?

The EU's 1 July removal of low value goods exemptions has reshaped the China-Europe trade lane. Combined tonnages from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe fell 10% YoY in September — an improvement on July's -14% and August's -15%.

The split matters. Hong Kong to Europe volumes dropped 24% YoY in September. Mainland China fell just 2%, versus -5% in August and -9% in July, and mainland September volumes recovered close to June levels.

Rates tell the same story. China-Europe average full-market rates fell to $4.26 per kilo in August from $5.22 in June, then recovered to $4.53 in September — up 9% YoY, against +30% YoY in June.

China to the US is running the other way. Tonnages grew 17% YoY in September, and average spot rates from China to the US hit $6.05 per kilo — up 30% on last September.

Where are rates heading?

After falling in June and July and stabilizing in August, worldwide average full-market rates edged 1% higher in September month-on-month. Africa origins led gains at +4%, Asia Pacific and Europe rose 2% each, MESA was flat, and North America dropped 3%.

Versus last September, average rates were up 25% — close to the +24% YoY increases posted in July and August — with markets and capacity still disrupted and fuel prices inflated by the US-Iran conflict.

MESA origin rates remain the most inflated, up 52% YoY. Africa followed at +27%, Europe +24%, Asia Pacific +23% and North America +18%, with CSA origins up a more modest 8%.

Week 40 showed momentum holding. Worldwide tonnages slipped 2% week-on-week — a second consecutive decline, driven mainly by a 2% drop from Asia Pacific origins as public holidays kicked in across China and east Asia. But spot rates and full-market rates both rose 1% WoW for a second straight week, the usual late-Q3 pattern ahead of the busy fourth quarter, leaving spot rates up 32% and full-market rates up 26% YoY.

With Q4 demand building, Chinese holiday effects fading and mainland China-Europe volumes already back near June levels, the rate trajectory points upward into the peak season.