Africa air cargo spot rates jump 60% to $3.11/kg as October tonnages climb 10%

Spot rates out of Africa surged 60% year on year to $3.11 per kilo in October, while chargeable weight from the continent grew 10% — the joint-fastest origin growth worldwide alongside Middle East & South Asia (MESA), according to WorldACD Market Data's preliminary full-month figures, drawn from more than 2 million monthly transactions.

The African rate spike rests on a simple arithmetic: capacity constrained, fuel surcharges high, and demand firm as the continent's perishables export season gets going. Spot rates from Africa also jumped 15% month on month in October. Africa-origin capacity rose 11% year on year in the latest two weeks, yet chargeable weight grew only 9%, and rates still climbed 31% over that fortnight. More demand chasing barely more space. Prices did what they do.

What does October look like globally?

Worldwide tonnages rose 6% year on year and 5% versus September. The regional breakdown of year-on-year chargeable weight growth:

• Africa and MESA: +10% each
• Asia Pacific: +7%
• North America: +5%
• Europe: +4%
• Central & South Asia: flat

Month on month, Africa led again with +9%, ahead of +6% rises from North America, Europe and CSA, +4% from Asia Pacific and +3% from MESA. MESA's growth came despite the US-Iran conflict squeezing Arabian Gulf capacity, largely on the back of Indian export demand and the later timing of Diwali — 6–11 November this year versus 18–23 October in 2025.

Pricing followed volumes. Average worldwide full-market rates — spot plus contract — rose 5% month on month and 29% year on year. MESA average rates led at +60%, with Europe and Africa at +29%, Asia Pacific +27% and North America +24%. Global spot rates averaged $3.67 per kilo, up 6% MoM and 37% year on year. Spot from MESA rose 59% YoY, North America 53%, Europe 35%, Asia Pacific 33%.

Where is demand actually falling?

China-to-Europe is the outlier, and it's falling hard. Volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe dropped 17% year on year in October. Mainland China origins fell 8%, but Hong Kong — the e-commerce origin point — plunged 32%, and remains more than 20% below its May and June levels, before the EU ended de minimis exemptions for low-value imports on 1 July.

European e-commerce air logistics specialists read this as structural, not seasonal: major platforms are shifting low-value shipments into consolidated B2B import models, including ocean, rather than flying individual B2C parcels. An additional €2 per item handling fee on EU imports from 1 November is expected to curb air e-commerce volumes further, though seasonal demand and resilient underlying European e-commerce should partly offset it.

Contrast the transpacific. China and Hong Kong to US tonnages rose 8% year on year in October — mainland China +9%, Hong Kong +4% — against a strong comparative base from last year's post-tariff rebound. China-Europe rates recovered 9% MoM to $4.85 per kilo, still 7% below May-June levels. China-US rates climbed 7% MoM to $6.47 per kilo, up 30% YoY and back near May-June levels.

Winter schedule, war effects and the weeks ahead

Week 44 (26 October to 1 November), the first full week of the winter schedule, saw freighter capacity up 3% offset by a 3% drop in bellyhold, with the steepest belly cuts on the transatlantic and within Europe. Europe-origin capacity fell 6% week on week, offset by Africa +4%, Asia Pacific +3% and MESA +2%. Worldwide tonnages were flat WoW but up 2% YoY; spot rates rose another 4% to $3.93 per kilo, 40% above the same week last year.

The US-Iran conflict still casts a long shadow. Total worldwide capacity in week 44 sits just 1% above late February levels, but MESA to-and-from capacity is down 12%, CSA down 6% and Africa down 3%, masked by near-10% growth to and from North America and +8% for Europe. Arabian Gulf capacity remains 18% below pre-war levels, including a near shutdown of Riyadh flights.

Asia Pacific momentum continues. South Korea-Europe spot rates topped $6 per kilo in week 44, up roughly 17% in three weeks on tech and cosmetics demand, forwarders report. Asia Pacific-US volumes rose about 10% YoY — Taiwan +26%, Thailand +20%, South Korea +18%, Japan +15% — with transpacific spot rates up more than 15% in three weeks to $7.67 per kilo, and South Korea and Japan above $8, at $8.55 and $8.23 respectively.

With Black Friday approaching, fuel surcharges rising and lanes tight, WorldACD expects further transpacific spot increases — and forecasts Q4 worldwide tonnages up 6% year on year.