32 African states paid $21.9bn extra for fuel as Hormuz disruption bites

Thirty-two African countries spent an additional $21.9 billion on seaborne fossil fuels between March and August, according to IntelliNews, as shipping disruption linked to the conflict in Iran rippled through the continent's supply chains. That figure — roughly $3.6 billion a month across the continent — frames the commercial backdrop to a rare three-way meeting between Presidents Trump, Xi Jinping and Putin on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen.

The summit itself is a nucleararms story: New START expired nine months ago, and the three leaders of the world's largest nuclear arsenals will discuss a possible successor framework. But for shippers, forwarders and exporters in emerging markets, the meeting matters for a second reason. It coincides with a war in Iran that has pushed traffic away from the Strait of Hormuz, diverted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, and inflated freight rates and war-risk insurance surcharges on East African trade lanes.

What does the summit actually promise?

Not much, by the organisers' own admission. A senior Trump administration official told Reuters: "we do not expect to get to any kind of agreement," casting the Shenzhen encounter as the start of a diplomatic conversation rather than a deal-making session.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was similarly restrained, telling Al Jazeera that "any agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be imposed on others," while still calling the gathering "extremely significant."

President Trump has framed the meeting as an opportunity to negotiate new limits on nuclear stockpiles and plans to discuss the Iran war with Xi and Putin, according to Al Jazeera. American officials say the agenda will not touch Russia's war in Ukraine. The gap between the announced ambition and the expected outcome is the story here: three leaders convening with no treaty, no interim framework and no negotiated text on the table.

How hard is the hit to African trade?

The commercial damage is concrete and quantified. In Kenya, exports to Middle Eastern buyers fell 26.4% year on year in the second quarter, to KES31.09 billion ($241 million) from KES42.23 billion — a drop of KES11.14 billion, or $86 million, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

The tea trade is bearing the sharpest edge of it. George Omuga, managing director of the East Africa Tea Trade Association, told the Nation the industry was "losing about $8 million a week" as millions of kilograms of tea sat stranded at Mombasa port. Run that weekly loss over a quarter and it approaches the entire $86 million decline in Middle East exports recorded between April and June.

The mechanism is straightforward: vessels avoiding the region divert around the Cape of Good Hope, adding days to transit times and triggering higher freight rates and war-risk insurance surcharges that regional exporters cannot easily absorb.

Angola faces a different arithmetic. Crude oil generates over 90% of the country's foreign sales, yet Angola imports most of its refined fuel — so higher global petroleum prices raise government costs even as they lift export receipts. The annual fuel subsidy bill now stands at an estimated $4.1 to $4.2 billion, and Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa told Lusa the outlay is "a cost associated with subsidies, specifically for fuel, which we haven't fully removed yet."

Subsidy spending threatens to climb to 2.48% of GDP, a level that constrains Angola's fiscal room precisely when it needs it most.

What happens next?

For carriers and shippers on Africa–Middle East lanes, the variables are the Iran conflict's trajectory and Hormuz transit risk, neither of which the Shenzhen summit is positioned to resolve quickly. A diplomatic opening, however modest, could ease war-risk premiums over time; a stalemate leaves Kenya's exporters and Angola's treasury carrying costs that already run into billions. With no agreement expected and arms-control talks framed as a first conversation, the $21.9 billion Africa spent on extra fuel imports this year looks more like a baseline than a peak.