VLCC Earnings Top $1m a Day as Container Lines Bank $43.4bn Quarter

VLCCs are earning upwards of US$800,000 — and on key routes over US$1 million — per day, historic peaks for crude tankers, while container carriers booked combined Q2 2026 revenues of US$43.4 billion, up nearly 16% year on year at an 11.2% operating margin. Across containers, multipurpose, dry bulk and VLCC tonnage, the market is running hot. The question every shipper, carrier and forwarder is asking: does it last?

What's driving the container recovery?

Maersk lifted its 2026 full-year guidance from an underlying EBIT of US$2 billion to US$4 billion, and Hapag-Lloyd raised its EBIT forecast to the US$1.25–1.75 billion range, with EBITDA guidance of US$3.9–4.4 billion. Those upgrades came after a flat first quarter. The mechanism behind them is familiar but powerful.

Political factors keep forcing route diversions — Asia–Europe tonnage sailing round the Cape of Good Hope — which quietly absorbs the excess vessel capacity that would otherwise depress rates. Western retailers front-loading holiday and peak-season inventory adds a second layer of demand. Weather disruption and port congestion play their part too. Congestion hurts liner operations, but it also acts as a catalyst for freight rates, and that boosts profits.

Volume growth, forecast at 4.7% year on year, is the surprise in a turbulent year that includes Donald Trump's war with Iran and the Hormuz debacle.

Is the container orderbook a ticking timebomb?

Maybe. As of end-October 2026, the global orderbook exceeded 15 million TEU, and it's expected to climb toward 16 million TEU after a wave of megamax newbuilding contracts. The contracted capacity of 15.12 million TEU, reported in Alphaliner's October Monthly Monitor, equals 43.9% of the existing trading fleet.

Layer on a return to normal operating geography — Asia–Europe tonnage shifting back to the Suez Canal rather than the Cape — and fleet growth could run well ahead of cargo demand. That's when the profitability problems start. Carriers also face rising bunker costs, fuel-choice decisions, aggression on the high seas, and heavy port investment and supply chain control issues.

Why is the multipurpose fleet finally making money?

China's project exports — wind turbine components and battery energy storage systems — have improved the operating climate for multipurpose owners, alongside a pick-up in charter business outside regular services. The economics work because the fleet barely renewed itself: from 2014 to 2024, almost no new vessels were delivered.

Two more forces help. Today's fleet lacks sufficient eco-ships, which burn 35–40% less fuel than older tonnage, making newbuilds viable. And rising tonne-miles mean more work per ship. Overcapacity looks unlikely here — the orderbook is just 12–13% of the existing fleet.

What's powering the dry bulk rally?

Owners speaking at the recent Maritime CEO Forum in Monaco voiced strong optimism about a potential 'generational freight rate' rally. Some argued the market is seeing structural, not temporary, change. The drivers are concrete.

West African minerals are boosting tonne-mile demand. Guinea overtook Australia as the world's No.1 bauxite exporter in 2023, per Fitch Solutions' BMI research firm, and its 2025 volumes rose 25% over 2024 to 182.8 million tonnes. Guinea's government is progressively regulating the sector — guarding against excessive production damaging demand and pushing value-addition onshore — but strong cargo flows are expected over the short to medium term.

Simandou iron ore exports, forecast only months ago at 45 million tonnes in 2027, are now projected at 65 million tonnes. India's shift to net iron ore importer, driven by domestic heavy steel demand, adds another leg. Minor bulks are rising too, propelled by the green energy transition and demand for manganese, nickel and lithium.

Agriculture is chipping in: South American soybean exports are surging, with Brazil shipping 178 million tonnes and Argentina 12.6 million tonnes to China.

Can VLCC rates hold against the newbuilding wave?

Tight vessel availability, geopolitical disruption and long-haul crude trade shifts pushed global VLCC daily earnings to those historic peaks. Regional disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman bottlenecks, plus longer voyages from the Atlantic Basin and US Gulf to Asia, are absorbing effective supply.

But the largest newbuilding wave in 50 years is looming. More than 100 new supertankers are scheduled to enter service per year in 2028 and 2029. The orderbook echoes the 1970s boom — just as the 1973 oil shock sent demand plummeting. With scrappage still low, the supply question is open. Hartland Shipping Services put it bluntly in a recent report: "This could be an upcoming supply disaster or merely some much needed fleet replacement."

For now, diversions, congestion and mineral cargoes keep rates elevated across all four sectors. How long depends on geopolitics holding — and on whether demand grows fast enough to meet the tonnage arriving from 2028.