VLCC delivery wave may exceed 100 ships a year from 2028

By Amara Osei

More than 100 VLCCs are scheduled to enter service in each of 2028 and 2029, according to Hartland Shipping Services. That would make the annual delivery wave the largest in half a century.

A boom that ended in lay-up

The scale recalls the supertanker boom of the 1970s. BIMCO’s historical figures put the record at 116 VLCCs delivered in 1974, while 68 deliveries in 2019 represented a four-decade high.

Tankers ordered during the early-1970s boom arrived just as the 1973 oil shock devastated demand. Between 1974 and 1975, global oil trade plunged 23% while tanker capacity grew nearly 16%, according to UNCTAD.

Freight rates collapsed, while the Suez Canal’s 1975 reopening shortened voyages. By year-end, INTERTANKO recorded 573 tankers in lay-up, representing 47.8 million deadweight tonnes. Owners faced financial ruin, newbuildings went straight into lay-up, and the industry endured a prolonged depression.

The wave is back-loaded

Hartland counts 319 VLCCs on order, equivalent to 34% of the existing fleet. The ratio rises to 42% when sanctioned ships are excluded.

• Just 20 VLCCs are scheduled for delivery over the next six months.
• Six VLCCs delivered last year, compared with just one in 2024.
• Hartland places 138 ships from the current orderbook in 2029 or later.
• BRS’s schedule assigns 283 of 351 VLCC orders to 2028 onward.

The timetable brings little immediate supply increase before changing sharply. The 2028-29 schedule brings the scale that made the 1970s comparison so uncomfortable.

Replacement has a plausible case because 47% of VLCCs are already at least 15 years old. Jefferies said last week: “we see most newbuilds as replacements.” The bank expects tanker rates to ease more slowly than the market anticipates, potentially extending the cycle beyond 2029.

Yet owners show little appetite for scrapping. Banchero Costa recorded only four VLCC demolitions during the first nine months of 2026, despite 172 new orders over the same period.

Clarksons values a 15-year-old VLCC at $165 million, well above the $131.5 million required to order a newbuilding. Extraordinary earnings and high secondhand prices keep ageing tonnage trading. That $33.5 million advantage tips the commercial calculation toward waiting.

Banchero Costa projects net VLCC fleet growth of 4% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, against just 0.2% in 2025. During January-September, seaborne crude loadings fell 6% year on year. The delivery wave will meet a softer cargo signal unless demand recovers before 2028.

What does this wave change for shippers, carriers and forwarders?

For shippers buying crude, today’s exceptionally expensive freight favors shorter-haul Middle Eastern barrels over Atlantic cargoes. Braemar warns that Asian refiners are already making that switch, eroding tonne-mile demand. Atlantic sellers therefore face a weaker competitive position.

Ship-to-ship activity is also slowing, leaving a growing surplus of VLCCs in the Middle East. The route shift matters beyond regional vessel availability: shorter voyages consume less tanker capacity for the same volume of crude.

For carriers, limited vessel availability and geopolitical disruption currently sustain extraordinary earnings. But low demolition keeps older ships trading while new vessels arrive from 2028. The supply side can expand before tanker demand does.

For forwarders, the practical issue is tonne-mile, not cargo count alone. Shorter-haul Middle Eastern sourcing reduces vessel demand, while slowing ship-to-ship activity adds to the regional surplus. Freight plans must separate today’s scarcity premium from the 2028 delivery surge.

Today’s shortage is also encouraging the ordering spree that could eventually bring the boom down. Owners are ordering against scarcity while current cash flows make demolition unattractive. Hartland stated in its latest weekly report: “This could be an upcoming supply disaster or merely some much needed fleet replacement.”

If crude loadings remain soft as the 2028 deliveries peak, retirements will decide whether the orderbook becomes replacement or surplus. Low scrap would pull tanker rates down faster than Jefferies expects, with the wave still running in 2029.