Vietnam keeps power on through 2026 shocks as 102 nations falter

Only 13 of 177 surveyed countries kept their energy systems stable through 2026, and Vietnam is one of them. Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Viet Son released the figure at the National Energy Security Forum on Tuesday, where the Ministry of Industry and Trade also presented the Vietnam National Energy Security Report 2026. The report calls this year the most challenging for the country's energy system in decades.

What hit Vietnam's energy system in 2026?

Three shocks converged at once. The Strait of Hormuz was blocked for roughly six months, pushing Brent crude oil prices as high as $118.35 per barrel. Record-breaking heat and El Niño conditions drove electricity demand to unprecedented levels.

At the same time, hydropower output fell by roughly 18.5 billion kWh compared with 2025. "Of the 177 countries surveyed, 102, or 57.6 percent, faced energy difficulties as of November 9, 2026. Only 13, including Vietnam, maintained stability," Son said at the forum.

How did the country avoid blackouts?

Vietnam achieved three concrete results, according to the deputy minister. He credited coordinated efforts by authorities and businesses, along with progress in removing regulatory bottlenecks.

• No rotating power cuts. Despite three extreme heatwaves, peak electricity demand reached a record 57,537 MW on June 24 without triggering rationing. Generation and imports rose 9.4 percent in the first nine months, and the full-year total is projected at 356.2 billion kWh, up more than 10 percent.
• Uninterrupted petroleum supply. Both domestic oil refineries ran above their designed capacities, and the range of crude oil grades processed expanded from one to more than 10. Vietnam avoided fuel shortages even with a major shipping route disrupted, and did so without tapping national petroleum reserves.
• Prices under control. Government measures worth more than VND64 trillion ($2.50 billion) — including fuel tax and fee reductions and advance funding for the fuel price stabilization fund — kept retail prices contained. As of October 26, domestic retail gasoline prices stood at roughly 63 percent of the global average.

Why does import dependence remain a risk?

The resilience has limits. Net energy imports made up 43.9 percent of Vietnam's total primary energy supply in 2025, and petroleum reserves cover only about 60 days of net imports — well below the 90-day target. The country holds no national crude oil reserves at all.

Son warned that heavy reliance on international supplies and shipping routes, combined with limited reserves, could undermine Vietnam's ability to withstand future disruptions. Regulatory hurdles, land clearance delays, and financing difficulties also continue to slow major power generation and transmission projects.

The stakes are high because Vietnam is targeting average annual GDP growth of at least 10 percent during 2026-30. Son said energy development must stay ahead of that demand, and that energy security must go beyond ensuring sufficient supplies to building a system that is safe, stable, self-reliant, and sustainable.

What comes next?

The report outlined six priorities for long-term energy security: reducing import dependence, expanding energy infrastructure, addressing non-traditional security threats, improving regulations, developing technology and human resources, and strengthening international cooperation. It also called for special mechanisms to accelerate urgent energy projects, increased investment in reserves, adjustments to the power generation mix, and supportive fiscal policies.

For a manufacturing hub that depends on stable power and fuel flows to sustain double-digit growth ambitions, closing the 30-day reserve gap and clearing project bottlenecks will determine whether 2026's resilience can be repeated.