US container imports have peaked. The ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million TEU in August, up 0.4% from July but down 0.7% year over year — and August now looks like the busiest month of 2026, according to the latest report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

That revision matters for anyone booking trans-Pacific capacity this quarter. A month ago, the forecast put September in the top spot. Instead, the peak flattened into a plateau that has run since early summer.

"Even with any fluctuations in final data, we're likely past the busiest part of the year," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error."

How fast do volumes come off?

The forecast curve bends down steadily from here:

• September: 2.28 million TEU, trimmed from the 2.31 million projected a month ago
• October: 2.25 million TEU
• November: 2 million TEU

The month-over-month glide should not be mistaken for weak demand. September volumes are still forecast to rise 8.2% year over year, with October up 8.5% — evidence of how soft the comparison base was in late 2025.

Which ports set records?

The extended season left clear marks at individual gateways. The Port of Los Angeles recorded its busiest three-month stretch on record across June, July and August. The Port of Savannah posted a record September this week, handling 504,015 TEU, up 3.7% from a year earlier.

That port-level strength reflects a season that repeatedly defied expectations. Retailers front-loaded merchandise early in the year to get ahead of tariff changes and supply chain uncertainty, which initially pointed to an early peak followed by a summer decline. Volumes stayed elevated instead, with shipping delays and resilient consumer demand stretching the traditional window.

What does the consumer picture say?

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, described an economy sending mixed signals. "Consumers appear to remain confident and cautious at the same time, with consumer confidence indexes sliding to multi-year lows while consumer spending continues to be robust in the face of increasing inflation," Hackett said.

For the full year, Global Port Tracker now expects imports at major US container ports to reach 25.8 million TEU, up 1.4% from 25.4 million TEU in 2025 and slightly above last month's forecast of 25.7 million TEU.

What happens after the holidays?

The early new year looks flat. January 2027 imports are forecast at 2.07 million TEU, down 1.9% year over year, followed by 1.92 million TEU in February, up 1%.

For retailers, the arithmetic is largely done. Because the season ran long, most holiday merchandise is already in the country, removing the need for another major import surge before year-end.

"Most holiday merchandise has arrived, and the remainder of the year is just a matter of last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027," Gold said.

With November volumes heading toward 2 million TEU — roughly 13% below the August peak — carriers face softening utilization into the winter, while shippers gain negotiating room on trans-Pacific rates for replenishment cargo.