UK speculative warehouse completions will tumble to 7.3 million ft² in 2026 — 45% below the five-year average and the lowest annual total since 2018, Colliers said in its latest industrial and logistics market report.

Q3 told the sharper story. Speculative completions fell under 500,000 ft² across the three months, the weakest quarterly volume in almost a decade, as developers pulled back on pre-build risk in a higher-cost environment.

How strong is occupier demand?

Occupier appetite has not followed developers down. Take-up of logistics units above 100,000 ft² hit 6.7 million ft² in Q3, lifting the year-to-date total to 21.8 million ft² — marginally above the pre-pandemic 10-year average.

The demand mix looks familiar. Retail, e-commerce and fulfilment operators took 78% of space transacted across the first nine months, with the Midlands cornering 63% of all deals.

Two named Q3 pre-lets did the heavy lifting:

• DHL pre-let 450,000 ft² at Westworks Corby
• DIRKS Consumer Logistics secured 306,000 ft² in Coventry

What is happening to vacancy?

The headline UK logistics vacancy rate held steady at 8.6%, but the mix is moving. Newly built availability dropped 10.3% over the past year, while second-hand space rose 20%.

That shift has dragged the share of new Grade A stock on the market down to 36%, from 43% twelve months earlier.

"Development activity has slowed considerably, resulting in a shrinking pipeline of new Grade A logistics space coming forward," said Deirdre O'Reilly, head of industrial research UK at Colliers. "Although vacancy has risen modestly again, the proportion of new and modern space available is falling, which means occupiers are facing a more competitive environment for the highest-quality space in the right locations."

Are rents still rising?

Yes — but the cushion is thicker. Average industrial and logistics rents climbed 4.3% year-on-year in August. Prime big-box rents added 2.7% on an annual basis through September.

Landlords are giving more away upfront. Average rent-free periods stretched from 14.8 months in 2025 to 15.8 months in 2026, Colliers said, moderating net effective rental growth for occupiers.

What does this mean for shippers, 3PLs and developers?

For shippers and 3PLs: Grade A scarcity in core Midlands locations will tighten from late 2026 as the speculative pipeline thins. Expect longer lease negotiations and more fit-out contributions from landlords competing on headline rent.

For developers: the pre-let model is back in favour. DHL and DIRKS both transacted off-plan, and Colliers' numbers show that is increasingly the only route to a Grade A build in current conditions.

For forwarders running shared-user warehousing: the 20% year-on-year rise in second-hand space keeps a ceiling on headline rents for older stock, even as new-build supply contracts.

What's the trajectory?

Colliers' pipeline data points to a tighter Grade A market through 2027. Headline vacancy may sit near current levels, but the available space will skew older — a pattern that lifts effective rents on premium product while keeping the wider market disciplined.