UCL tracker warns IMO carbon rules could hit food import costs hardest

Unprocessed cereals face the steepest transport-cost increases under the IMO's proposed Net-Zero Framework, because their low value and high volume make freight a bigger share of their delivered cost, according to new research from University College London.

Researchers at UCL's Shipping and Oceans Research Group have launched the NZF Impact Tracker, an online tool that models how different versions of the IMO's decarbonisation framework could push up maritime transport costs and traded goods prices through 2050. The timing is deliberate. Governments meet at the IMO's MEPC 85 session later this month to continue negotiating shipping emissions regulations and measures to shield vulnerable economies.

The stakes are not evenly distributed. The tracker includes a dedicated food security section covering eight essential food groups, letting countries identify which commodities are most exposed to higher shipping costs. Countries dependent on imported bulk cereals could see larger food transport cost increases than those importing higher-value products.

Which countries are most exposed?

Earlier research involving UCL already flagged the vulnerable list. Papua New Guinea, Haiti, Yemen, Solomon Islands and Liberia rank among the countries most susceptible to food security pressures tied to higher import costs.

The IMF adds a macro dimension. Its separate research found inflation in small island developing states is nearly twice as responsive to international food commodity price shocks as in other economies. A freight-cost shock that would be absorbed elsewhere can feed directly into consumer prices in island economies.

The new tracker's coverage is broad. It spans 136 coastal countries, including 26 least developed countries and 36 small island developing states. That granularity matters for negotiators at MEPC 85, who must weigh decarbonisation ambition against the burden the measures place on import-dependent economies.

What does this mean for shippers and carriers?

For grain traders and bulk operators, the analysis points to a structural issue rather than a short-term rate spike. If carbon pricing under the Net-Zero Framework raises the cost per tonne-mile, low-value, high-volume cargoes absorb proportionally more of that increase than containers of finished goods. Bulk cereal supply chains operate on thin margins, so freight inflation passes through quickly into landed prices.

Exporters serving food-import-dependent markets may face pressure from buyers and governments to absorb part of the added cost, or to restructure trade flows toward shorter-haul sourcing. Carriers and shipowners, meanwhile, face a policy environment where the distributional effects of emissions measures are now quantified country by commodity, making it harder to argue that impacts are too diffuse to address.

The UCL tool arrives as the IMO works through how to pair its emissions targets with support mechanisms for states that could be disproportionately affected. The food security section gives negotiators, forwarders and grain shippers a common dataset for those debates.

Attention now turns to MEPC 85, where the terms of any compensation or relief for vulnerable economies will shape both the pace of shipping decarbonisation and the cost of moving the world's staple food cargoes.