US truck transportation employment posted 1,473,100 jobs in September, up 2,600 from August and — for the first time since April 2023 — higher than a year earlier, by 800 jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report released Friday marked the third consecutive monthly increase in truck transportation jobs, and the sector has now added positions in four of the last five months.

The year-on-year gap was brutal at its widest: roughly 60,000 jobs negative in June and July 2024. It narrowed steadily from there and stood at just 9,700 jobs short a month ago. A sharp drop in truck transportation employment between August and September last year, combined with gains over the same two months this year, pushed the comparison into positive territory.

What do the sub-sectors show?

Truckload driver employment, reported with a one-month lag, rose to 503,200 in August from 501,400 in July. That remains below the 503,900 recorded a year earlier, and far under the peak of 553,600 hit in both August and October 2022.

LTL employment also kept climbing, reaching 248,900 in August, up 1,200 month over month and above the 246,000 level at the close of 2025.

Is capacity really exiting the market?

Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State, said the truckload and LTL gains challenge the narrative that freight capacity is leaving the market. The data, he said in an email to FreightWaves, "points to existing establishments adding some capacity."

"However, I'm not convinced these data won't be substantially revised because seasonally adjusted administrative records showed payrolls declining in March, not reaching a bottom like the survey assumes," Miller said. "If the employment data are indeed correct, this runs counter to the arguments advanced by the public truckload carriers that capacity continues to exit on net. These data point to the opposite: capacity is slowly recovering."

He added that the gradual LTL employment increase "makes sense with PMI data suggesting growth in manufacturing activity."

Mazan Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight, flagged a different risk: the gap between the Current Employment Statistics and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages suggests the annual BLS revision published in early February could cut the LTL and truckload figures.

"These figures are likely overstated and face significant revisions early next year," Danaf said. "While Q1 Current Employment Statistics data indicated for-hire trucking employment fell 1.7% year-over-year and long-distance truckload dropped 2.8%, the more reliable Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages survey reported steeper declines of 2.4% and 4.1%, respectively — better reflecting tighter regulations in Q1. If the QCEW numbers are accurate, the market may enter peak season undersupplied."

Why are warehouse jobs sliding?

Warehouse employment, which had appeared to rebound a few months ago, has stalled. After a 4,100-job decline between August and September plus downward revisions to June and July, warehouse jobs stood at 1,831,800 — barely above the roughly 1,831,000 posted in January and February.

The sector shed 21,600 jobs year over year and sits more than 107,000 below its March 2022 peak.

Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist specializing in freight economics, called the third consecutive decline "a troubling signal at a time of year when the sector should be busy building inventories ahead of the holiday season."

"Either warehouse operators are planning for a muted holiday season, or automation has shifted the sector's labor needs during the annual peak season," he said in an email to FreightWaves.

Other benchmarks from the report

• Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees in truck transportation hit $32.67 in August, up from $32.36 — the roughly 9.6% monthly increase was the highest since October 2025.
• The AscendTMS/Superior Trucking fleet growth index rose 0.19% in September, its third straight monthly gain. Driver turnover fell to 8.15% from 9.37% in August and 15.06% a year earlier. The driver pay index of 154.13 remained below the June peak of 170.04.
• Rail employment stayed below 150,000 at 148,900 jobs — the second-lowest total since the sector held above that level from late 2022 until earlier this year. The recent peak was 158,100 in April 2024.

Terrazas, commenting on the broader report's modest 29,000-job rise in total employment, said the labor market remains "not contracting, but vulnerable," with only "a bunch of yellow lights telling us to proceed with caution."

For carriers and shippers, the immediate question is whether the February revision confirms recovering truckload capacity or validates the Uber Freight view of an undersupplied market heading into peak season.