A single supertanker voyage from the US to Japan will cost $81 million in late November, nine times the $9.1 million average for the same run last year, as war-driven risk premiums push oil freight to record territory.

The 2-million-barrel cargo aboard the VLCC Esteem Explorer works out to $40.50 per barrel in shipping alone, according to Reuters reporting from Houston and Los Angeles dated Oct. 15. Freight now accounts for more than 40% of the delivered price of US oil — based on Wednesday's benchmark around $95 per barrel — versus an average of 7% in 2025, LSEG shipping and oil price data show.

What does the freight spike mean for fuel prices?

Every $10-per-barrel increase in shipping costs adds roughly 23 cents per gallon at the gasoline pump, according to Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy and resource economics at the Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston. On that basis, the Esteem Explorer's voyage cost implies at least 80 cents more per gallon than last year, by Reuters calculations.

Medlock framed the inflation pass-through as gradual but persistent. "It's sort of like a slow-moving train. It doesn't all happen instantly … but the longer this drags on, the more sticky it becomes, which means you get more of a sustained impact at the grocery store, in the convenience store, at the mall," he said. "Everything gets more expensive because that's how we move stuff around."

Import-dependent countries — India, the Philippines and Indonesia — bear the brunt, Medlock said. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that record tanker rates are already squeezing Asian refiners' margins.

Which routes and vessel classes are hit hardest?

Rates to move crude from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea to Asia hit a record near $34 per barrel this week, with shippers pricing in an attack premium tied to the US-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war. Fearing strikes, owners are also taking longer routes, tying up tonnage.

The crunch has spread well beyond the headline Persian Gulf trade. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast–Asia route — vessels carrying up to 1 million barrels — have quadrupled since the Iran war began in February, according to Signal Ocean data. Aframax rates on the US Gulf Coast–Europe run, on ships up to 750,000 barrels, have quadrupled over the same period.

A parallel shift in Saudi logistics is compounding the tonnage squeeze. After attacks on Saudi Arabia's main pipeline pushed more barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, shippers began transferring oil ship-to-ship, using more vessels to spread the risk to any single hull. The tactic has cut ship availability, raised costs and lengthened the time cargoes spend on the water.

Who wins, who pays?

Tanker owners are the clear winners. Recent earnings reached as much as $1.3 million per ship per day for a round trip from the Persian Gulf through Hormuz to Asia, said Georgios Sakellariou, a freight analyst at Signal Ocean. The 2025 average: $55,000 per day.

"If you'd have told me six weeks ago that we were seeing a million dollars per day, I wouldn't have believed you," said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior analyst at maritime intelligence firm Windward.

One person at a company that owns and operates tankers primarily in the Americas said this year may be the most profitable ever for the sector.

For charterers, the timing of contracts now matters enormously. Many shippers fix tonnage on the spot market about a month before loading, while some lock in vessels for three to five years. Those long-term deals, which fixed prices before the spike, could prove bargains if rates climb further — leaving spot-exposed charterers to absorb the record levels.

Shipowners also face a fragmenting fuel market, as conflict-driven disruptions raise concerns about both the availability and the quality of bunker supply — a complication that adds cost and operational friction on top of the freight spike itself.

How long can the boom last?

The rally's durability depends on the crude market, not on shipping fundamentals, one leading broker cautions. "Our expectation is that as long as there is more crude oil demand than supply, tanker rates will remain strong. However, as soon as the crude oil market loosens, tanker rates will come off the boil quickly," said Erik Broekhuizen, head of tanker research and consulting at shipbroker Poten & Partners.

Until that loosening comes, import-dependent economies and spot charterers will keep paying record rates, while owners of VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax tonnage cash in on a market reshaped by war-risk premiums and diverted tonnage.