Suez Traffic Hits 35% of Normal as Carriers Push Rates Higher

Asia-North Europe spot rates jumped 6% last week to $3,442 per FEU even as container lines steadily push services back through the Suez Canal — a return already at 30% to 35% of normal market levels, according to liner analyst Lars Jensen.

The rate move lands in a strange market. Carriers are adding capacity through the Red Sea while simultaneously securing spot-rate gains on trades where demand is weakening. Asia-Mediterranean rates rose 3% to $3,927 per FEU. Trans-Pacific prices held largely unchanged but stayed elevated: $8,126 per FEU to the U.S. West Coast and $9,700 per FEU to the East Coast, up 1%, per the Freightos Baltic Index.

What does this change for shippers? In the near term, contract leverage. The increases follow general rate increases carriers launched as negotiations for 2027 long-term contracts begin. Some forwarders doubt the gains will hold against current supply-and-demand fundamentals. Daily readings early this week still showed further upward pressure, possibly because carriers are cutting capacity as the trade enters its slower season.

Who is going back through Suez?

The headline mover is the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk (OTC: AMKBY) and Hapag-Lloyd. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said in recent public comments that Gemini expects nearly all its services back on Suez routings during the first quarter of 2027, provided conditions hold.

The partners aren't waiting for the calendar. A new Asia-Mediterranean service through Suez starts in November — designated AE18 by Maersk and SE5 by Hapag-Lloyd — connecting Chinese ports with western Mediterranean transshipment hubs. The first sailing leaves Shanghai on Nov. 22.

Jensen put overall Suez restoration at roughly 30% to 35% of normal, with backhaul voyages slightly ahead of headhaul sailings. He called the measured pace a positive surprise, because it cuts the risk of an abrupt, industrywide network transition.

Why return amid the fighting?

The security picture hasn't cleared. Iranian attacks on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz have surged as Persian Gulf oil flows recovered toward prewar levels, Bloomberg reported — though as of its Oct. 13 report there was no clear evidence of reduced oil loadings among several major regional producers. Iranian forces sank a Dubai-linked container vessel this past week, proving some box operators now accept Hormuz risk alongside the tankers that still dominate the traffic.

Crude sits near $100 a barrel despite the export recovery, signaling continued worry over supply disruptions. In the Red Sea, escalating violence between Yemen-based Houthi rebels and the Saudis adds concern for shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

High fuel costs and port congestion help explain why carriers will trade longer Africa-diverted routings for these risks. So does a shifting geopolitical calculus — including the possibility that the Houthis avoid commercial shipping while directing pressure toward Riyadh, per analyst and SONAR data contributor Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO).

The capacity trap in 2027

The phased return carries a built-in benefit. Ships completing shorter voyages arrive at European and Mediterranean hubs in manageable numbers, limiting the bunching and schedule chaos a sudden shift would cause. Habben Jansen said Gemini's step-by-step approach had handled workloads at its hubs without major problems so far.

Timing helps shippers too. The restoration follows the early-July Asia-Europe demand peak and runs through lower-demand months — far less disruptive than a peak-season transition.

Port congestion, while easing at major Asia hubs, still absorbs some vessel capacity. That partly offsets the tonnage released as ships cycle faster through the Red Sea. But arithmetic eventually bites. Shorter voyages increase effective fleet capacity, and if demand doesn't keep pace, 2027 brings real risk of excess supply.

Trans-Atlantic shows the ceiling

October increases on the trans-Atlantic produced more modest results. Spot rates climbed about $200 per FEU since end-September to roughly $2,850 per FEU — roughly 25% above year-earlier levels, possibly reflecting elevated bunker costs. Carriers still couldn't implement the full increases they sought, a signal forwarders on Asia-Europe will watch closely as 2027 contract talks progress.