Suez Canal container traffic has climbed past half the volume it carried before Red Sea diversions gutted its east-bound liner business, according to a report from Sada Elbalad English — a recovery that signals a slow thaw in one of the world's most contested shipping corridors.

Per the report, container ship transits through the waterway have now crossed the 50% threshold of pre-crisis levels. That is a symbolic marker for an artery that lost most of its Asia-Europe box business when attacks on commercial shipping in the southern Red Sea pushed the major liner alliances onto the Cape of Good Hope.

How low did Suez go?

At the peak of the diversion in early 2024, container transits on the Suez had collapsed by more than 60% from 2023 baselines, according to widely published industry data. The 2M, Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance members rerouted Asia-Europe strings around Africa and added 10 to 14 days to typical rotations, absorbing extra bunker burn and idling Suez slot capacity that had been the spine of Europe trade.

Crossing back to half of pre-crisis volume is meaningful. A vessel running Asia-Europe via Suez today cuts roughly two weeks off transit and halves the bunker burn of a Cape routing. That math problem has tilted back toward the canal as attacks in the southern Red Sea have eased through 2024 and into 2025.

What does the milestone mean for shippers and forwarders?

Expect more weekly Asia-Europe strings to flip back to Suez routing in the coming quarters. That means shorter transit times for shippers — particularly those moving time-sensitive electronics, pharmaceuticals and apparel — and the prospect of softer spot rates on lanes that had baked extended Cape diversion costs into BAF-style surcharges.

For container lines the trade is less generous. Returning tonnage to Suez means carrying higher war-risk insurance and transit fees while running against residual Cape-routed capacity. Carriers will likely stage the return gradually, restoring one or two strings per quarter rather than flipping whole services back overnight.

What is using Suez today?

The traffic mix has changed. Bulk carriers, tankers, ro-ro and vehicle carriers — segments with thin margins and little tolerance for a 14-day detour — were first back through the canal. Container lines trailed, deterred by the volume of high-value boxes on each sailing and the reputational risk of a single successful strike.

Where does this go from here?

The next move belongs to the Houthis and to marine war-risk underwriters. A single high-profile attack would torch the recovery; a sustained quiet period through Q2 could push container traffic past 70% of pre-crisis volume by year-end, with corresponding rate and capacity pressure on the headhaul Asia-Europe trades.

Until insurance premia for Suez transits normalize toward pre-crisis benchmarks, expect the rebound to inch forward, not sprint.