Saudi Arabia is preparing a ground-and-air offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen that could mobilise more than 100,000 Yemeni troops and is designed to wrest back control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait from the Iran-backed militia, according to six regional and Western officials briefed on the plans.

The operation, which has not been previously reported, targets the southern Red Sea chokepoint that the Houthis seized last month. It would be led by Yemeni forces under Saudi oversight and supported by Saudi airstrikes, with potential launch timing ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.

What is at stake for shipping?

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gateway of the Red Sea, the sea lane linking the Mediterranean to Asia via the Suez Canal. It has taken on outsized importance this year as carriers already rerouted around the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iran conflict has effectively closed. A Houthi grip on Bab el-Mandeb gives the group what Western diplomats describe as significant global leverage over container, tanker and bulk traffic.

Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemen peace negotiations while the Houthis control the strait. "As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb," said Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia. "Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic."

What are the two operational options?

Gulf and Yemeni officials outlined two scenarios to Reuters:

• A narrowly focused assault on the area around Bab el-Mandeb
• A broader multi-front offensive covering the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf

The scale of troop mobilisation — 100,000-plus Yemeni soldiers — will depend on which path Riyadh chooses. Analysts expect the smaller option.

Who is backing the operation?

The United States is supplying intelligence and targeting data and has military advisers embedded with Saudi forces, though President Donald Trump has rebuffed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's request for direct US air strikes, Reuters previously reported.

Pakistan and Turkey, signatories to a joint Saudi defense pact signed last month, have provided materiel. Pakistan airlifted four cargo planes carrying air defense systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden last month, a Pakistani government official said. Pakistani military advisers are on the ground with Saudi counterparts. Turkish drones purchased before the current war are already operating over Yemen.

France has separately announced it will deploy defensive systems and troops to Yanbu, the Saudi Red Sea port city. Pakistan has between 30,000 and 40,000 troops inside Saudi Arabia to defend borders and intercept drones and missiles; Islamabad has not committed combat troops to Yemen.

Can the ground forces deliver?

The offensive will rely on the fragmented anti-Houthi coalition Saudi Arabia and the UAE armed during earlier phases of the war. Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha warned the factions are not prepared for the sustained push required. "Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organized or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force," he said. "They are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once."

Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi, close to government thinking, tied success to local troop performance. "The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive," he said. "Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces."

Yemen's anti-Houthi forces were further fractured last winter when UAE-backed southern fighters attempted an eastern secession push and were beaten back by Saudi-aligned units.

What is the offensive timeline and trigger?

The six officials could not pin down a launch date, with estimates ranging from seven days out to after the November US midterms. Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi movement and US Central Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

For container lines, tanker operators and dry-bulk carriers that pivoted around the Cape of Good Hope after the Houthis began striking commercial shipping in late 2023, the offensive represents the first credible plan to physically reopen the Bab el-Mandeb corridor rather than simply deter attacks. Whether Riyadh picks a limited coastal operation or a wider multi-front campaign will determine how quickly — and how durably — Red Sea transit can resume for the Asia–Europe and Asia–Med trade lanes.

Watch Suez Canal transit data and boxship diversion rates over the next 30 days for the first commercial signal of whether the planned offensive is altering carrier route planning.