Houthi missile and drone attacks that killed at least 14 people at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport have pushed the Saudi-Houthi conflict to its most dangerous point in months, just as container lines and shippers open tendering for 2027 annual contracts.

The airport, where more than 300 people were injured, stays closed until at least October 17. Airlines have canceled flights, and the Houthis have threatened further strikes on Saudi airports and military targets. Overnight, the Yemen-based militia hit the headquarters of Aramco, the Saudi oil producer, with missiles. Riyadh has vowed a "serious response."

For shipping, the immediate effect is uncertainty rather than a confirmed capacity shock, according to Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO), the rate-index and SONAR data contributor. No broad closure of the Red Sea has been confirmed. That distinction matters: carriers had gradually increased Asia-Europe transits through the Red Sea since June, expanding effective vessel supply and pulling spot rates down. A renewed campaign against commercial shipping could reverse that trend and push rates back up.

The escalation follows Houthi attempts beginning in July to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the chokepoint at the Red Sea's southern entrance to the Gulf of Aden — to Saudi-linked traffic, including vessel attacks into August after nearly nine months of relative quiet.

What do the rate numbers show?

Spot rates on Asia-Europe lanes have fallen steadily since July on post-peak demand weakness and the carriers' gradual Red Sea return. But the floor remains high: both major Asia-Europe trades sat above $3,000 per FEU last week, roughly 70% higher than October 2025.

Some carriers have already announced October general rate increases. Asia-Mediterranean spot prices rose 7% to $3,800 per FEU last week — a move that could anchor a higher benchmark before annual contract negotiations begin in earnest.

The support beneath those numbers looks fragile. Congestion in Northern Europe and the Far East has absorbed capacity, and a threatened German port strike that could have worsened European delays was recently averted. Remove the congestion, and the market softens further; add a Red Sea shock, and it tightens. Shippers and carriers are negotiating 2027 contracts between those two scenarios.

Why are shippers hesitating on 2027 deals?

Carriers enter talks with rates historically elevated. Shippers see reasons not to lock those levels in:

• Newbuild deliveries expected next year expand fleet capacity.
• Continued growth in Red Sea transits would further increase effective capacity by shortening Asia-Europe voyages.

Those factors have led some shippers to expect rates to ease in 2027 and to hesitate over long-term commitments at present prices — a wager that geopolitical risk stays contained.

Is the trans-Pacific peak ending?

The trans-Pacific has held near peak-season levels since July on sustained demand and Asia congestion. The first cracks are showing: Far East-U.S. West Coast rates dipped 2% to $8,150 per FEU, potentially the start of a post-Golden Week decline.

The National Retail Federation's latest U.S. import forecast points to a sharp seasonal slowdown, projecting November ocean arrivals down 11% month over month. Even so, the NRF projects full-year 2026 imports just 1.4% above 2025 and 1.2% above 2024, approaching the record volume set in 2021.

Outlook

Rates may keep softening through the rest of the quarter as peak-season cargo tapers. The principal upside risk is geopolitical: a sustained Houthi campaign against Saudi targets, or renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, could tighten effective capacity and complicate carriers' efforts to defend rate levels heading into 2027 contract talks.

By Marcus Bennett, Waybill Wire