Ryder raises 2026 EPS outlook as all three segments grow

By James Calloway

Ryder (NYSE: R) raised its 2026 non-GAAP earnings-per-share estimate to a stated $14.85-$14.05 range from $14.40-$14.80, while lifting its non-GAAP return-on-equity forecast to 18%-19% from a flat 18%.

With three quarters complete, Ryder has less room for another large guidance increase. The revision followed year-over-year improvement in nearly every operating measure, although pretax earnings slipped in Dedicated Transportation Solutions.

Where did growth come from?

Ryder reported revenue growth across all three operating segments in the third quarter:

• Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), which includes Ryder’s vehicle rental and leasing business, posted a 10% revenue increase and 21% pretax earnings growth.
• Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), Ryder’s contract logistics provider, reported 9% revenue growth and 7% pretax earnings growth.
• Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS), which contracts transportation services to shippers, delivered 6% revenue growth but a 5% pretax earnings decline.

Revenue gains did not translate evenly into pretax profit. Fleet management supplied the strongest profit growth, while supply chain delivered the second-highest revenue gain. Even with DTS revenue up 6%, pretax earnings fell 5%; Ryder cited lower operating revenue and a prior-year workers’ compensation benefit, offset partly by strategic cost savings.

How much support came from used vehicles?

Ryder sold 5,100 used vehicles, up from 4,900 a year earlier. Used tractor prices rose 19% year over year and used truck prices increased 5%.

Pricing also strengthened sequentially: tractor prices jumped 15% from the second quarter, while truck prices rose 6%.

For truck fleets and carriers, that combination raises the value of used equipment while increasing the cost of acquiring it; for Ryder, it supports the company’s effort to reduce earnings dependence on used-vehicle sales.

Ryder reports used-vehicle sales as a net cost based on provisions. The third-quarter figure was a negative $17 million, compared with a positive $3 million a year earlier and negative $7 million in the second quarter; the larger negative amount benefited earnings.

Citi’s Ariel Rosa said the $17 million net benefit was wider than the expected $10 million.

How much rental capacity remains?

Citi analyst Ariel Rosa called Ryder’s result “better than expected” and highlighted 77% rental utilization, against the company’s 80% target.

The three-percentage-point gap shows Ryder still has room to raise utilization. For shippers and forwarders evaluating rental capacity, the number points to commercial headroom below management’s target, though the release gave no split by vehicle type, customer or region.

Why did dedicated transport lag?

Citi’s Rosa said: “DTS is likely facing elevated driver hiring costs/wages/bonuses on ongoing driver market tightening, which should drive a partial offset of shippers outsourcing more to DTS.”

The forecast gives shippers a two-sided cost signal: tighter competition for drivers raises hiring, wage and bonus expense, while greater outsourcing to DTS could add volume for Ryder’s dedicated-carrier operation.

For other carriers, labor pressure can squeeze dedicated margins even when revenue grows; Ryder’s 5% pretax decline shows that risk in the quarter.

For forwarders, SCS’s 9% revenue increase is the clearest scale signal, showing growth in Ryder’s contract-logistics business alongside fleet leasing and dedicated transport. The release did not disclose volume, pricing or warehouse capacity, so the 9% cannot be assigned to any one driver.

What happens next?

At about 9:40 a.m. EDT, shares traded 5.92% higher, or $14.22, at $254.53 after the release.

Ryder scheduled its conference call for 11 a.m. Thursday. The stock remained up 29.8% over the last year but was down about 12.5% over three months and slightly higher over the latest month.

Beyond the call, the key capacity signal is whether Ryder can move rental utilization from 77% toward 80% while tighter driver markets produce DTS volume rather than only higher hiring costs.