Roughly 20 Qatari LNG tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz in the four weeks after a single covert crossing on September 10 — a shuttle-run operation that lifted exports back to nearly a third of prewar levels by the end of September. The workaround that reopened the world's most critical gas corridor began with Al Rayyan, a 29-year-old vessel and one of the oldest in Qatar's fleet, sailing dark — without transponders or lights — under US Navy security assurances.

How did a 29-year-old tanker reopen the corridor?

Al Rayyan's captain had been idling in the Gulf for days when the order came through, according to Bloomberg's reconstruction based on interviews with more than two dozen traders and officials, most speaking anonymously. The aged carrier slipped through Hormuz and discharged at Sohar, Oman, where the 2025-built Al Mas'habiyyah took the cargo on to China. Al Rayyan turned back for the next load.

The pattern mirrors what Gulf oil exporters pioneered over the summer: laden "mother" vessels — often older ships running without lights — meet "daughter" vessels in the Gulf of Oman. For LNG, the maneuver is far costlier, requiring cryogenic hoses and specially trained crews to handle fuel chilled to minus 162C. QatarEnergy did not respond to queries.

What is the commercial cost of the outage?

Every week Ras Laffan sits idle costs Qatar roughly $1 billion in lost sales against its roughly $200 billion economy. The IMF estimates the country could contract 15.6% this year. Exports between April and the end of September fell almost 90% year on year after missile and drone strikes in March forced the first supply interruption in three decades of operations at the complex.

The stakes extend beyond Doha. Qatar supplied nearly a fifth of global LNG last year, and until the war began it ranked second only to the United States among exporters. "If Qatar can establish a more regular export route, it would start to ease one of the biggest constraints on the global LNG market," said Toby Copson, China-based managing partner at Davenport Energy.

Why freight rates hit ten times market?

To hit its target of loading roughly one shipment a day for destinations as distant as China and Japan, QatarEnergy recalled leased-out tankers aged 15 years or more — ships insurers would cover at manageable premiums versus newbuilds costing more than $300 million to replace. Still short of tonnage, it chartered third-party ships including vessels from Greece's Maran Gas Maritime at freight rates about ten times prevailing market prices, according to sources involved.

Crewing posed a second constraint. Several countries, including the Philippines, resisted letting their nationals crew Hormuz transits. QatarEnergy turned to Indonesian recruiters, offering double and sometimes triple normal monthly pay plus strait-crossing bonuses.

Can the trading arm offset lost volumes?

QatarEnergy Trading, established in 2020, accelerated purchases of American LNG — including from the QatarEnergy-controlled Golden Pass terminal in the US, which started up this year — both to keep deliveries flowing and to sell at a profit. Bangladesh, under its Petrobangla contract, bought cargoes at roughly twice its long-term contract price despite a small discount to spot. QET is on track to handle more than 15 million tons this year, up from an estimated 10 million tons in mid-2024 — still a fraction of Shell's more than 70 million tons.

"In the very near future, we will be the largest LNG trader in the world by far," Energy Minister and QatarEnergy CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi told the Qatar Economic Forum in New York in September. The company is in advanced talks with Louisiana and Texas export projects for multi-year purchases of millions of tons.

What comes next for prices and contract terms?

Attacks continue — a new wave last week targeted a tanker linked to QatarEnergy, slowing transits again — and two of Ras Laffan's 14 trains, damaged in March, could take about three years to repair, though 83% of capacity remains operational. Analysts say the disruption erodes the premium Qatar once commanded. "QatarEnergy will have to adapt, either through lower prices, or more flex or a combination of both," said Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. With extended force majeure potentially giving buyers exit rights and Gulf states pursuing pipeline alternatives, the recovery's durability will hinge on whether shuttle runs through Hormuz can survive an unresolved conflict.