Q3 freight spending jumps 32.1% as truck volumes barely rise

By Tom Whitfield

U.S. Bank's third-quarter Freight Payment Index put shipper spending 32.1% above a year earlier, even as national shipment volume managed only a 0.5% annual increase.

The shipment index reached 75.4, up 0.4% from the second quarter, while the spending index rose 5.2% from the first quarter to 242.4. The report, issued late last week, shows a market charging more without delivering a broad freight rebound.

Costs rose. Volumes did not.

Why did spending jump while shipments stalled?

The report was direct: "Shipper spending rose sharply in the third quarter, driven by higher rates and elevated diesel prices."

Federal and state safety officials enforced driver rules more aggressively, and carriers were not adding capacity. That tightening pushed rates upward.

American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello, the report's lead author, identified three forces: tighter capacity pressuring rates, elevated diesel costs for shippers, and uneven freight volumes.

Energy costs compounded the increase. The EIA's third-quarter average diesel price rose about 4% from the second quarter and climbed sharply in September, reaching $6.53.

For shippers and forwarders, higher linehaul rates and fuel surcharges meant a larger bill for soft volumes. For carriers, tighter supply and pricing supported revenue even as freight activity stayed subdued.

Why did freight volumes stay soft?

Costello wrote: "By both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year measures, the third quarter may have been the strongest of 2026."

He qualified that result, calling freight activity subdued and pointing to sharp regional variation. The national shipments index edged up from both the second quarter and a year earlier. Shipments did not decline, but growth remained limited.

Only the first and third quarters recorded annual shipment gains over the last four years. The second quarter fell 2.8% year over year. The report described the overall picture as showing little momentum, consistent with flat freight-related economic indicators.

Consumer spending held up as households used savings and increased borrowing. Inflation-adjusted retail sales rose 0.5% from the second quarter and 1.4% from a year earlier. The report cited those conditions as one reason for the modest volume increase.

Manufacturing added only narrow support. Activity rose 0.2% quarter over quarter and 1.2% year over year, driven mainly by AI, defense and commercial aircraft production. Excluding those sectors, manufacturing was flat, while food manufacturing declined.

Construction remained weak: housing starts fell despite significant growth in data center construction. Costello said broader economic momentum can overstate the freight outlook because the goods-producing sectors that drive truck demand lagged. Growth concentrated in a few specialized industries rather than broad manufacturing and construction, limiting freight demand.

Where did regional volumes diverge?

Regional results split sharply:

• Western U.S.: shipments down 3.1% sequentially and down 2.1% year over year.
• Midwest: shipments down 2.5% sequentially but up 2.4% year over year.
• Northeast: shipments up 1.4% sequentially and up 2.8% year over year.
• Southwest: shipments up 2.9% sequentially but down 2.6% year over year.
• Southeast: shipments up 4.7% sequentially and flat year over year.

Rates, diesel prices and fuel surcharges drove regional shipper spending higher. The West recorded the steepest sequential decline, while the Southeast posted the strongest quarterly gain and finished flat against a year earlier.

Higher prices and uneven freight activity produced revenue growth without a uniform volume recovery.

What does the index actually measure?

The report, first launched in the third quarter of 2017, covers national and regional freight shipment volumes and spending. Its scope and scale:

• Payment timing: actual transaction payment dates.
• Domestic modes: truckload and less-than-truckload, the highest-volume domestic freight modes.
• Adjustment: seasonal and calendar adjustments.
• History: data back to 2010, with a base point of 100. Each subsequent quarterly index point marks that quarter's volume relative to the preceding quarter.
• Scale: more than $46 billion in annual freight payments processed by U.S. Bank Freight Payment for some of the world's largest corporations and government agencies.

What should shippers watch next?

Capacity comes first. Continued enforcement of driver rules, coupled with carriers' decision not to add capacity, could sustain upward pressure on rates even without stronger volumes.

Diesel is the second lever. A further rise from the third-quarter average and September's $6.53 would feed directly into fuel surcharges.

Demand is the third. Broad-based gains in manufacturing and construction, beyond AI, defense, commercial aircraft and data centers, would be needed to turn soft shipments into sustained freight growth.

Until then, the data points to continued cost pressure against uneven volumes: a 32.1% spending increase can mask a 0.5% volume gain. For shippers, the practical question is whether higher rates and fuel costs will finally translate into more freight. On the latest reading, they have not.

Enforcement, diesel prices and broader goods-sector output will shape the next quarter's rate and volume trajectory. Without a broad-based manufacturing and construction recovery, shippers face the prospect of higher costs without a broad volume rebound.