Shipper freight costs jump 32% in Q3 — biggest rise since 2021

U.S. shippers spent 32.1% more on freight in the third quarter than a year earlier — the largest annual increase since 2021 — while shipment volumes barely moved, rising just 0.5%. That spread, per the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, is the whole story: same freight, bigger invoice.

Two forces drove the gap. Carrier capacity tightened, and diesel climbed above $6.50 per gallon nationally. Carriers got pricing power; shippers got the bill.

The quarter did mark a modest milestone. National shipment volumes rose both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year for the first time since 2021 — by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. Demand isn't booming. It's just no longer shrinking.

What does this change for shippers?

For shippers, the answer is cost without growth. Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, put it plainly:

"What makes this quarter notable is that outlays are rising much faster than freight volumes. Freight demand remains uneven, but companies are encountering tighter truck capacity, higher fuel costs and stronger carrier pricing power. As a result, shippers are spending substantially more to move essentially the same amount of freight."

That's a budget line growing nearly a third faster than the activity it pays for. To put a frame on it: a shipper moving the identical load count as last year is now funding roughly a third more spend — the equivalent of paying for thirteen months of freight with a twelve-month budget.

How regional is the damage?

Very. The index splits the country into a market that's tightening unevenly rather than uniformly. Region by region:

• Southeast: strongest sequential shipment gain, up 4.7%; spending up 9% quarter-over-quarter — also the largest increase.
• West: worst sequential shipment decline, down 3.1%; California diesel hit $8.25 per gallon in late September, roughly $1.75 above the national figure.
• Northeast: led year-over-year shipment growth at 2.8%.
• Midwest: shipments fell; spending still rose, with the smallest sequential increase at 0.6%.
• Southwest: posted the largest annual spending surge at 51.6% — more than half again last year's outlay — as enforcement actions reduced the pool of drivers hauling domestic loads.

Every region saw spending rise both sequentially and annually. No shipper got a discount anywhere.

Bobby Holland, director of freight business analytics at U.S. Bank, drew the operative conclusion:

"Freight conditions vary by region, but cost pressure is widespread. Even where volumes are flat or declining, tighter capacity and higher operating costs are driving spending higher."

Where does this go next?

For carriers, the data reads as leverage: capacity is scarce enough to push rates even where freight is flat. For forwarders and shippers, it argues for locking capacity in the tightening regions — the Southwest and Southeast — before pricing power shifts further.

The swing variable is policy and fuel. The Southwest's 51.6% spending spike traces directly to enforcement actions removing drivers, and California's $8.25 diesel shows how localized fuel shocks can compound a national squeeze. If capacity keeps exiting faster than demand recovers, the spend-versus-volume gap of Q3 may be a floor, not a peak.