Just 38% of UK transport operators run alternative fuel vehicles today, despite 87% calling emissions reduction a key priority. That 49-point gap is the headline finding of GXO Logistics' latest Future of Transport report, published on 14 October 2026, based on a survey of more than 1,000 supply chain, transport and logistics decision-makers across the UK.

The numbers tell a familiar story. Ambition is cheap; trucks are not. Rising operating costs are now steering fleet investment, and fuel is the sharpest lever.

Some 63% of respondents said higher fuel costs are accelerating their interest in alternative fuel vehicles. Yet 76% insist on demonstrated cost savings or operational efficiencies before committing capital to anything new. In other words, operators want the maths to work first. The planet can wait for the spreadsheet.

What is actually slowing the transition?

Three barriers keep appearing, per the report:

• High vehicle purchase costs
• Limited refuelling and charging infrastructure
• Uncertainty over which fuel technology will win

Infrastructure investment confirms the hesitation. Only 25% of businesses have started planning charging or refuelling facilities, and just 30% have begun procurement planning for future energy requirements. Fewer than one in three firms is even budgeting for the energy transition. That's not a decarbonisation strategy. That's a holding pattern.

Operators squeeze efficiency from the fleets they have

With new trucks unaffordable or unproven, operators are optimising what they already own. The survey found:

• 43% are reducing partially loaded journeys
• 41% are cutting empty vehicle movements
• 41% are exploring fleet sharing
• 39% are optimising delivery routes

All four measures have grown more common since GXO's previous survey in 2024. It's the least glamorous decarbonisation in freight: fewer wasted miles, better load factors. It also happens to cut fuel bills, which is presumably the point.

No single winner expected before 2028

UK logistics businesses don't expect one technology to replace diesel across all operations. Expectations for viability by 2028 break down as follows:

• LNG or CNG gas-powered fleets: 70%
• Electric heavy goods vehicles: 68%
• Biofuels: 64%
• Hydrogen: 62%

The field is tightly bunched — just eight points separates first from last. GXO notes these figures reflect industry expectations rather than confirmed adoption plans. Hope, as ever, is not a procurement document.

"Decarbonisation and commercial performance cannot be treated as competing priorities," said Carl Hanson, Managing Director, Transport, GXO UK & Ireland.

GXO is putting some skin in the game itself. The company participates in the UK's Zero Emission HGV and Infrastructure Demonstrator programme, which supports the deployment of electric trucks and associated charging infrastructure.

What does this change for shippers and forwarders?

Not much immediately — and that's the finding. The report exposes a widening gap between UK emissions targets and actual fleet investment. Operators want affordable, practical routes to lower transport costs while keeping one eye on low-emission technology.

For shippers, that means road freight decarbonisation will arrive through efficiency gains before it arrives through electric tractors. Expect load consolidation, shared capacity and route optimisation to feature more prominently in carrier proposals over the next two years.

The trajectory, if fuel prices stay high, is straightforward: cost pressure will keep doing the work that climate policy alone has not. Whether the 38% adoption figure climbs meaningfully before 2028 depends less on targets than on purchase prices and charging infrastructure catching up with operators' arithmetic.