North American railroads will build roughly 25,000 railcars this year while scrapping more than 35,000, a net deficit that Trinity Industries EVP and CFO Eric Marchetto says could soon force shippers and lessors into new builds at elevated prices — even as freight demand accelerates.

Association of American Railroads data for week 39 showed total North American carloads up 1.6% year over year, with intermodal volume surging 6.9% and combined traffic 4.4% above the same week in 2024. U.S. carloads rose 2.4% and U.S. intermodal jumped 7.4%, lifting overall U.S. volume 5.1%.

The fleet math, however, points the other way. Marchetto, at Trinity since 1995, said storage cars are coming out of reserve, but nobody has changed fleet planning yet. Intermodal car storage already sits at a six- to seven-year low. Slower train speeds and longer dwell times compound the tightening by effectively removing capacity from the network.

"I feel like if the pace of railcar loadings picks up, something's got to give, and it's going to be people are going to have to add to their fleet, and there's not a lot of slack in the existing fleet to add to," Marchetto said.

Why are fleet decisions stalled?

Tariff uncertainty is the primary brake on capital spending. Marchetto noted that tariff policies have changed, on average, every week in some form, making capex planning nearly impossible for industrial shippers.

"When you say it could be X, or it could be X plus ten, or it could be X plus twenty-five, and we don't know, then people tend to wait," he said.

Waiting is unlikely to improve the economics. Steel costs, interest rates and lease rates are all trending higher heading into 2026. Section 232 steel tariffs have already driven up the cost of hot-rolled coil and steel plate, both critical inputs for tank car production.

What does the tank car trade complaint change?

A trade complaint filed by Union Tank Car — a Berkshire subsidiary and the largest tank car owner in the world — against Mexican-built tank cars adds another layer of pressure. Trinity has manufactured railcars in Mexico since 1998, and Marchetto called the complaint "frustrating," warning it could raise car prices, push lease rates higher and intensify inflationary pressure on industrial shippers. Trinity is also investing in expanding its Longview, Texas, facility.

Where is traffic heading?

Chemicals — the largest sector for Trinity's rail business — were essentially flat at negative 0.1% in week 39, a persistent concern for Marchetto. Coal posted a rare weekly gain but remains down 3.3% for the year; the uptick likely reflects utilities rebuilding winter stockpiles as rising natural gas prices make coal more competitive.

Looking ahead to 2026, Marchetto is watching for a broader industrial recovery beyond data-center-driven demand. Data center construction has boosted aggregate and cement shipments, but that tailwind fades once facilities are built. Chemical traffic and broad-based manufacturing growth — particularly from onshoring — are the metrics he is tracking most closely.

Surface Transportation Board data showed manifest on-time performance above 85% for Class 1 railroads in late September, one encouraging signal. But Marchetto stressed that service predictability, not raw speed, is what ultimately drives shippers to choose rail over truck. With the fleet shrinking and storage buffers nearly exhausted, the commercial question for 2026 is whether shippers order cars early at rising prices or gamble that current equipment holds.