No Iran-Linked Tanker Has Loaded Crude Since September 17

Not a single Iran-affiliated tanker still transmitting AIS in the Middle East Gulf has shown a draft change indicating loading since September 17, according to Windward data. Six weeks of silence at the region's principal crude terminal marks the sharpest visible contraction in Iran's seaborne exports since the blockade began.

The numbers were thin even before the halt. Between July 27 and September 17, the Maritime Intelligence Operations Center (MIOC) detected only seven AIS-transmitting tankers loading almost 6 million barrels of crude. That pace works out to roughly 113,000 barrels per day, a fraction of Iran's historical export throughput.

What do the satellites show at Kharg Island?

Satellite imagery tells the same story as the AIS record. Automated detection over Kharg Island from September 18 to November 1 found no dark tanker at either of the island's loading terminals. The anchorage east of Kharg, where tankers wait their turn to load, shows the same nine vessels holding the same positions, week after week.

Where is the spare capacity sitting?

Windward data identifies 47 tankers in the Middle East Gulf that are owned by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) or the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC), fly Iran's flag, or have made Iranian port calls in 2026. Only 25 of them still broadcast AIS; 22 run dark, 14 of them since the blockade began. The figures describe only the transmitting subset, not Iran's full commercial fleet.

Of those 25 AIS-visible tankers:

• 15, or 60 percent, appear to be in ballast, including 11 VLCCs, together representing nearly 24 million barrels of empty carrying capacity.
• 9 sit laden with about 11 million barrels aboard, three of them VLCCs.
• 1 has an undetermined load state.

Iran's transmitting tankers in the Gulf have room to spare, yet none has taken cargo since September 17.

What happened to Iran's old floating storage?

Outside the Gulf, the AIS-visible tankers that once served as Iran's floating storage now sit largely empty. Windward counts 140 Iran-linked tankers broadcasting AIS beyond the region: 115 in ballast and 25 laden.

Five main holding areas account for 76 of them, anchored off Malaysia's Eastern Outer Port Limits, Sri Lanka, eastern Malaysia, Karachi, and Duqm. Only three of the 76 are laden or partly laden, according to available AIS draft data.

Laden AIS-transmitting Iran-associated tankers across Asia and the Indian Ocean carry about 9.6 million barrels in total. Some 5.9 million barrels of that, or 61 percent, is in transit aboard five tankers heading toward China, the clearest signal of where Iran's remaining seaborne barrels are still finding buyers.

Why has the crude stopped moving?

There is no evidence showing where Iran's crude is going instead, and that gap leaves three possible explanations:

1. Onshore storage. Crude is moving into tanks at Kharg Island.
2. Dark loading. Tankers are loading between satellite passes with transponders off.
3. Output cuts. Iran has reduced production and begun capping wells.

The first two scenarios would only postpone the problem of Iran's limited capacity to store its own crude. The third is Iran's worst case, because capping wells risks equipment damage, adds repair time, and raises the cost of bringing production back online.

What should the market watch next?

Each explanation leaves a trace. A tanker anchored east of Kharg that changes position or draft between satellite passes would point to dark loading. Continued silence at the terminals would shift the weight of evidence toward onshore storage and, as those tanks fill, toward production cuts. The longer the loading gap runs past six weeks, the narrower Iran's options become for keeping its crude moving.