LA/LB Brace for Strike as 85% of Long Beach Cargo Hangs in Balance

Some 85% of container cargo moving through the Port of Long Beach — and 33% at Los Angeles — passes through terminals staffed by roughly 250 security workers who may walk out at 5pm Pacific Time on Sunday, when the latest contract extension between ILWU Local 26 and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) expires.

No strike has been confirmed. Negotiations on an extension or a new deal between the union and PMA-represented employers were still under way at the time of writing. But the arithmetic is stark: if the security workforce stops, and other ILWU members refuse to cross picket lines — as they traditionally do — the affected terminals could come to a standstill.

“Hence this impacts a significant part of operations,” said industry consultant Lars Jensen, who also flagged the risk that disruption could spread across additional operations at the complex.

How exposed is the San Pedro Bay complex?

The timing could hardly be worse. The LA/LB complex processed an average of 68,000 teu per day in September, according to Mr Jensen — a record-setting pace for the gateway. Even a short stoppage at that volume would quickly stack up bottlenecks for landside trucking queues and arriving vessels, compounding delays across trans-Pacific supply chains already running hot.

The inland network is already under strain before any picket appears. CargoTrans reported that on Monday approximately 35,700 containers were waiting for rail transportation at the complex, including roughly 10,500 that had sat at terminals for nine days or longer.

The forwarder has advised customers with released cargo at the ports to collect it before Sunday evening and to "allow flexibility in delivery schedules", with particular attention to rail shipments — the segment where dwell is concentrated.

What else is squeezing drayage capacity?

One more constraint is fixed on the calendar. The Vincent Thomas Bridge is scheduled to close from 7 November for approximately 16 months, a shutdown likely to lengthen drayage journeys through the port complex regardless of how the labour talks resolve. Carriers and truckers routing through Terminal Island should expect longer turns and revised trip planning well into 2026.

Does the international day of action compound the risk?

Separately, an 'international dockworker day of action' on 30 October — organised under the Palestinian-led BDS movement and endorsed by 17 Palestinian trade unions and confederations — has drawn commitments from more than 25 unions across 22 countries to strike, demonstrate or take other action in protest against war and militarisation.

The programme includes 24-hour strikes in France, Italy, India, Greece and Turkey, alongside demonstrations and rallies at ports and in cities across four continents.

Markos Bekris, president of Greek dockworkers' union ENEDEP, was blunt about the motivation: "Dockworkers do not work for war." The campaigners are demanding an end to militarisation and to military relations with Israel, citing the conflict in Gaza.

The BDS-coordinated action is formally separate from the ILWU Local 26 dispute in Southern California. Taken together, though, the two developments underline how readily labour action can reach port operations and international supply chains — and how little buffer shippers have at a gateway moving 68,000 teu a day.

What should shippers watch now?

Three dates matter this week and next:

• Sunday, 5pm PT: expiry of the current contract extension covering the affected security workers; the trigger point for any strike notice.
• Before Sunday evening: CargoTrans's recommended deadline for collecting released cargo, especially rail boxes.
• 7 November: start of the 16-month Vincent Thomas Bridge closure.

For carriers and forwarders, the exposure is asymmetric. The PMA's own figures put the blast radius at roughly a third of LA's throughput and five-sixths of Long Beach's — meaning any stoppage lands hardest on the larger of the two ports. For shippers with trans-Pacific bookings routed via Long Beach, pre-emptive pickup, flexible delivery windows and alternative routing via other West Coast or Gulf gateways are the obvious levers, though each carries its own cost and dwell penalty.

A caveat is warranted: no strike has been called, and extensions have held before. But with talks unresolved, rail queues already near 36,000 boxes and a bridge closure imminent, the complex's resilience is being tested on three fronts simultaneously. Whether Sunday's 5pm deadline produces a deal, another extension or a picket line will set the tone for trans-Pacific capacity — and possibly rate sentiment — into November.