Hapag-Lloyd profit jumps 480% as rates mask declining volumes

Marcus Bennett

Hapag-Lloyd’s third-quarter group profit rose 480% year on year, as higher spot rates more than offset nearly flat volumes in its liner shipping business.

Hapag-Lloyd’s liner revenue rose 25% year on year, driven by an average freight rate of $1,808 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU), compared with $1,413 in the same quarter a year earlier. The carrier handled 3.4m TEU, marginally below last year, while Container Trades Statistics reported global container volumes up 5%.

For spot-exposed shippers, the rate increase raised the cost of moving a container. For carriers, it lifted yields; for forwarders, it made cargo budgets harder to fix. Hapag-Lloyd’s flat volumes against a 5% global increase support the reported loss of market share, although the figures do not provide a carrier-by-carrier reconciliation.

Is Hapag-Lloyd losing share on its core lanes?

Asia-Europe volumes fell 5.7% from Q3 2025 to 927,000 TEU, and transpacific volumes declined 2.7% to 1.2m TEU. Those two core lanes therefore weakened while Hapag-Lloyd’s overall volume was only marginally lower, making the rate-led result less evidence of network expansion.

Vespucci Maritime founder Lars Jensen said Maersk’s Q3 declines were broadly similar. He called it “plausible that capacity restrictions in the Gemini network are part of the reason for volume declines for both Gemini partners.” Capacity limits can support freight rates and constrain shipper access at the same time, so the same network decision helps Hapag-Lloyd’s yield while reducing its volume growth.

By contrast, Africa and other inter-regional carryings grew 12.5%, and their average freight rate increased 35.1%. CTS market trends broadly supported that direction. The combination shows Hapag-Lloyd could still expand outside its two largest reported corridors, although the disclosed figures did not identify which markets drove the inter-regional gain.

What did high vessel utilization hide?

CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said: “We delivered a strong third quarter, driven by significantly higher spot rates, robust demand and high-capacity utilisation.” He also said unit costs remained under pressure from geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions. High utilization can lift yields quickly, but the disclosure gives no unit-cost percentage, so it does not show how much of the profit surge reflected operating efficiency.

What does Hapag-Lloyd’s terminal expansion change?

Hapag-Lloyd recently completed its purchase of a 25% stake in APM Terminals’ Maasvlakte II facility in Rotterdam and formed a Brazilian joint venture to build and operate a new greenfield terminal in Aracruz. The moves extend its terminal reach while the liner operation faces volume pressure.

Hanseatic Global Terminals now has 27 sites in its portfolio, against a target of 30 terminals globally by 2030. Q3 revenue rose 51% to $197m, EBIT climbed 280% to $34m, and throughput at terminals in which the division holds an interest increased 10% to just under 4m TEU.

For shippers and forwarders, the Maasvlakte II stake can support operational coordination, while the Aracruz project adds a planned Brazilian gateway. Neither development, however, comes with disclosed targets for vessel capacity, berth productivity or transit-time savings. The terminal gains therefore strengthen the group’s asset base without proving that they will offset a weakening liner-volume position.

How much confidence should shippers place in the forecast?

Hapag-Lloyd raised its full-year EBITDA forecast to $4.6bn-$5bn and group EBIT to $2bn-$2.4bn. The company said freight-rate volatility and persistent geopolitical challenges left the outlook subject to considerable uncertainty. For shippers, that means Q3’s stronger rate base cannot be treated as a durable benchmark; for forwarders, it argues against building fixed assumptions around the quarter’s yield.

Can the ZIM purchase close?

Hapag-Lloyd remains confident that its attempt to acquire Israeli carrier ZIM with local private-equity fund FIMI will succeed, and expects outstanding approvals in Q1 2027. Completion would broaden the carrier’s network and potentially alter future capacity and service decisions, but the company disclosed neither a transaction value nor an approval timetable beyond that quarter.

Can a Suez return ease the capacity squeeze?

Evergreen is planning eight ad hoc Suez Canal and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait transits linked to its Far East operation, while renewed use of Suez has raised congestion fears at Red Sea ports. For forwarders, the moves indicate active network testing; for shippers, any restored routing option remains tied to the practical capacity of Red Sea ports. The announcement provides no vessel-capacity or congestion timetable, leaving the commercial timing uncertain.

The next test is whether constrained Gemini capacity continues to support rates without further market-share erosion, and whether the pending ZIM approvals and Red Sea routing developments add usable capacity rather than new congestion; absent that, shippers should not treat Q3’s $1,808-per-TEU rate as a durable benchmark.