Short-term container freight rates are climbing sharply because supply and demand remain balanced despite the industry's record orderbook, according to Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen.

"Despite a large order book, we do not see a big imbalance between supply and demand today. It is actually fairly tight, which explains why short-term rates are up so much," Habben Jansen said.

His comments push back against the widespread assumption that the vessel orderbook held by carriers across the industry will inevitably flood the market with capacity and depress rates. On Hapag-Lloyd's reading, effective capacity available to shippers right now is constrained enough that spot rates are responding upward.

Imbalanced trades drive the fleet math

A structural factor is quietly absorbing much of the new capacity: the widening gap between dominant and weaker trade legs. Hapag-Lloyd calculates that overall cargo growth of around 15% over a three-year period can require approximately 25% more capacity, because fleet and equipment requirements are set by volumes on the strongest legs, not by the average.

"The imbalance is getting worse. That means the cost of empty boxes is going up," Habben Jansen said.

The consequence for carriers is a more asset-intensive business model. Fleets must expand faster than cargo flows, and boxes accumulate on the wrong side of the trade, raising repositioning costs. For shippers and forwarders, that dynamic shows up in equipment availability on export-heavy legs and in the cost base carriers will need to recover through pricing.

Transpacific demand stays strong

On the Transpacific, Hapag-Lloyd continues to see strong demand into the United States. Habben Jansen said current conditions point to a relatively normal peak season, with volumes holding firm before potentially easing around Golden Week in early October.

He also cautioned against reading recent market conditions as evidence of a structural shift in container shipping. The sector remains highly volatile, and profitability can swing rapidly in either direction. From his perspective, the seasonality observed this year has not been particularly unusual.

The message to shippers is straightforward: the current strength in short-term rates reflects genuine tightness rather than a permanent repricing of the market. Habben Jansen's framing suggests carriers expect volatility to persist, with capacity absorption on imbalanced trades continuing to offset orderbook-driven fleet growth in the near term.