Hapag-Lloyd has lifted its 2026 group EBITDA forecast to US$3.9 billion–US$4.4 billion, the second upgrade this year, as spot freight rates on the container trades held above expectations through the peak season.

The Hamburg-based liner raised EBIT guidance to US$1.25 billion–US$1.75 billion from a prior band of US$100 million–US$1.1 billion. The previous EBITDA range stood at US$2.7 billion–US$3.7 billion, meaning the ceiling has now moved up by US$700 million.

Management attributed the upgrade to strong market demand and higher spot freight rates, but cautioned that the forecast "remains subject to a high degree of uncertainty because of volatile freight rates and persistent geopolitical challenges." Spot indices on the transpacific eastbound and Asia-Europe headhaul lanes have stayed above the levels Hapag-Lloyd modelled at the start of the year.

What does the new Zim offer change?

The earnings upgrade sits alongside an intensified bid to close the US$4.2 billion takeover of Israel's ZIM. On September 24, Hapag-Lloyd and its Israeli partner FIMI Opportunity Funds delivered a revised proposal to the Israeli government that preserves the original split: Hapag-Lloyd would absorb ZIM's global network while FIMI owns a separately chartered ZIM Israel.

The new package widens ZIM Israel's operating perimeter. It adds a direct weekly Israel–Far East service to the Atlantic and Mediterranean services already on the table, doubles ZIM Israel's reefer capacity to underwrite Israel's food supply chain, and commits to a standalone Israeli IT system and a programme to rebuild the local seafarer pool.

The US$4.2 billion purchase price is unchanged. Israeli outlet Calcalist Tech reported the three corridors — Atlantic, Mediterranean and Far East — will anchor ZIM Israel's standalone network once carved out, with the Israeli entity retaining a core container fleet under full Israeli control.

Why is the Israeli government still blocking the deal?

Israel's Prime Minister's Office and Finance Ministry issued a joint statement on September 28 opposing the revised terms. The PMO argued there is a "gap between the proposed corporate structure and the operational reality," flagging that significant capabilities of the Israeli company would remain dependent on Hapag-Lloyd.

The Finance Ministry went further. It cited ZIM Israel's reliance on Hapag-Lloyd for containers, slot agreements, agencies and back-office infrastructure, and questioned the assumptions behind the standalone business plan. It also pointed to Hapag-Lloyd's shareholder register — which includes Qatar's sovereign wealth fund and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund — as a political-risk factor in any crisis involving Israel.

Defence Minister Israel Katz and ZIM's workers' committee have joined the opposition, arguing that the new draft still leaves too few vessels under Israeli flag and control.

Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI said they will finalise the business plan and legal framework within 45 days and convene with Israeli ministries to work through the outstanding issues. The carrier has held since February that the transaction will close by the end of 2026, but the latest objections have made that timetable less certain, and other regulatory approvals are still pending.

What does the deal mean for shippers and forwarders?

If approved, the acquisition would push Hapag-Lloyd further up the global liner ranking by slot capacity and extend its reach on the east Mediterranean and intra-Asia trades. ZIM's Israel-linked niche services would fold into a larger network with more sailings per week.

For shippers, the commercial question is service continuity. Forwarders booking ZIM slots today will watch whether the merged entity reshuffles port rotations, transhipment hubs and reefer capacity allocations after the carve-out of ZIM Israel. Carriers competing on the Israel trade, including MSC and Maersk, will recalibrate their share as the market consolidates.

What comes next?

Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI have 45 days to deliver a final business plan. The next checkpoint will be the Israeli cabinet review and the outcome of inter-ministerial talks scheduled over that window, with regulatory approvals in other jurisdictions still required before closing.