Freight prices have slipped slightly, but experts at the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade warn that two structural threats — port congestion and mounting Black Sea troubles — could unwind that relief for shippers and carriers alike.

The Institute's latest State of Freight briefing reports a modest fall in prices across its tracked indices. For shippers, that easing offers a brief window to lock in contracts at lower levels after an extended period of elevated costs. For carriers, it squeezes yields at a moment when network reliability remains fragile.

The relief may prove short-lived. The briefing identifies port congestion as the first of two long-term risks. Congestion has repeatedly demonstrated its power to absorb effective capacity even when nominal capacity is ample: vessels queue, schedules slip, and spot rates firm as equipment and ship availability tightens at the berth. Shippers who have lived through previous congestion cycles will recognise the pattern — a rate decline that reverses sharply once dwell times lengthen at key gateways.

The second risk sits in the Black Sea. The Institute's experts point to continuing woes in the region, which threaten trade flows through corridors that matter for grain, energy and other cargo moving between Black Sea ports and global markets. Any deterioration there would hit specific trade lanes hard, with consequences concentrated on operators and forwarders serving the region rather than spread evenly across global networks.

For forwarders, the combination matters commercially. Softer prices create margin pressure on the buy side of the book, while the two flagged risks raise the odds of sudden capacity and routing disruption on the sell side. That argues for scenario planning on alternative routings and for clients to be briefed early on where Black Sea exposure sits in their supply chains.

For carriers, the calculus is different. Falling prices test discipline just as congestion risk keeps schedule integrity — the main service metric shippers pay premiums for — under strain. The operators that protect reliability through the coming months are best placed to defend contract rates when the market tightens again.

The Institute's framing is a warning against reading too much into a single downward move in prices. Its experts see the current softness as cyclical, set against structural pressures that have not gone away: berths that can still clog, and a Black Sea that can still generate shock. Shippers and carriers alike should treat the dip as a planning opportunity rather than a new equilibrium.

The trajectory to watch, on the Institute's own analysis, is whether congestion metrics and Black Sea conditions deteriorate faster than the price decline can deliver savings — a race that will determine whether freight costs resume their climb in the months ahead.