EIA lifts 2027 U.S. diesel forecast to $5.03 a gallon

A higher baseline for 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects U.S. retail diesel to average $5.03 a gallon in 2027, up 54 cents from its October projection, while gasoline rises to $3.73, in a Short-Term Energy Outlook completed Nov. 5.

The revision lifts diesel from $4.49 to $5.03, a 54-cent increase, or roughly 12%. Gasoline moves from $3.56 to $3.73, up 17 cents or nearly 5%. Both projected averages remain considerably above 2025 levels, so consumer relief stays limited even as oil flows from the Middle East pick up.

EIA cited persistent tightness in global fuel supplies. Energy prices rose after the U.S.-Iran conflict, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries compounded the shock, keeping crude and refined products under pressure.

Brent crude is expected to average $104 a barrel in November and $99 in December, before easing to $86 for 2027. Brent traded near $92 when the outlook was completed, leaving a sizable gap between near-term prices and the annual assumption.

Near-term pump prices are moving the other way. Retail fuel prices have eased as traders increased bets on a resolution to the Iran conflict. On Nov. 9, AAA said U.S. gasoline had fallen below $4 a gallon for the first time since July; gasoline also typically falls headed into winter.

In a Nov. 10, 2026 post, Patrick De Haan wrote: “live national average this morning $3.967/gal according to GasBuddy, diesel at $6.157/gal”. He put gasoline’s decline at 1-3 cents a day, roughly the pace of the national average, and diesel’s at 1-2 cents a day. He also expected diesel below $6 around Thanksgiving.

EIA separately raised its forecast for U.S. natural gas storage at the end of November because the month started warm. That benchmark sits apart from diesel; warmer weather does not loosen global refined-fuel supply by itself.

What does the higher diesel forecast change for freight?

For U.S. truckload carriers, $5.03 is a cost-planning number, not a freight-rate quote. The 54-cent increase from October raises the baseline for 2027 rate talks and fuel-cost recovery discussions. Carriers absorbing more of the increase face thinner margins, while shippers seeking dedicated capacity should expect fuel-sensitive proposals from a higher starting point.

The outlook offers no truck-capacity or lane-rate figures, so it signals operating-cost pressure rather than a measured freight shortage. Contracts and bargaining determine what carriers recover, making the fuel assumption important for shippers, carriers and forwarders alike.

Forwarders should keep two clocks. One tracks the current pump print; the other tracks EIA’s annual average and Brent path. A $6.157 diesel reading on Nov. 10 sits above the $5.03 forecast, but a one-day retail average is not an annual forecast. Building budgets around either number alone would mistake a snapshot for a trend.

Neither forecast automatically sets truckload rates. Contract formulas and negotiations determine how much of the move reaches a lane quote, so the $5.03 assumption belongs in 2027 budgets rather than a claim that every rate will rise by 54 cents.

The fuel-price surge also carries political weight. It played a central role in discontent with President Donald Trump’s Republican Party and contributed in part to the historic Democratic sweep in the previous week’s midterm elections. The forecast offers no obvious electoral comfort, because both 2027 benchmarks remain above 2025 levels.

Looking ahead, the base case is modest near-term easing at the pump but a higher 2027 cost floor. Brent is expected to fall from $104 in November and $99 in December to $86 for 2027, yet the Iran conflict and attacks on Russian refineries leave global supply risk unresolved. For freight operators and shippers, that combination argues for planning against $5-plus diesel, not the sub-$4 gasoline headline.