Durban's Hi5 spread has quadrupled to $308/mt from $80/mt a month ago, as Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) prices at the South African port surged $245/mt while High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) held nearly flat.

The spread — the price differential that determines the economic case for scrubber-fitted tonnage to bunker HSFO instead of compliant low-sulphur fuel — widened to $308/mt, against $80/mt on 1 September, according to ENGINE price data.

What's driving the VLSFO spike?

Durban's VLSFO climbed to $1,177/mt from $932/mt over the same window. The port's HSFO moved only $17/mt, reaching $869/mt from $852/mt. The asymmetric move pushed the Hi5 — the metric bunker traders and ship operators watch to gauge scrubber payback — to a level that materially alters fuel choice economics for vessels calling at the port.

How tight is supply?

A trader told ENGINE that fuel availability in Durban is "extremely tight" and advised buyers to allow lead times of 10 to 15 days to secure deliveries of any fuel grade. The market structure is lopsided: only one supplier currently delivers HSFO at the port, while roughly three suppliers offer VLSFO.

That imbalance matters because HSFO remains the cheaper fuel for scrubber-fitted ships, and limited supplier competition typically translates into delivery friction. One market source confirmed that demand is currently running more strongly toward VLSFO than HSFO, suggesting non-scrubber tonnage dominates the call mix at Durban.

What does the spread mean for scrubber-fitted tonnage?

A $308/mt Hi5 spread is a strong commercial signal. For a scrubber-fitted ship, the saving on HSFO versus VLSFO produces a substantial per-call fuel cost advantage at current differentials. Owners with scrubbers on Durban rotation have a direct incentive to maximise HSFO stems, even with 10-15 day delivery lead times.

The economics work the other way for non-scrubber tonnage, which must lift VLSFO at $1,177/mt — by far the priciest grade in South African and nearby regional bunker hubs.

How does Durban compare regionally?

Durban's VLSFO is the most expensive grade among South Africa's main bunker ports and its nearby alternatives. The current premiums:

• $217/mt over Cape Town
• $143/mt over Richards Bay
• $127/mt over Algoa Bay
• $193/mt over Port Louis, Mauritius
• $300/mt over Walvis Bay, Namibia

The $300/mt premium over Walvis Bay is large enough to influence bunker planning on rotations along the South-West African coast, where Walvis Bay offers a structurally cheaper stem.

What does the single HSFO supplier mean for risk?

Concentration risk has not yet been priced into the Durban bunker market. If the lone HSFO supplier were to face a logistics disruption, scrubber-fitted tonnage could be forced to switch to VLSFO at a $300/mt-plus penalty relative to alternative South African ports.

What to watch next

Whether the spread widens further will hinge on VLSFO import flows into Durban and any easing of the 10-15 day delivery backlog. Normalisation of regional supply chains would compress the Hi5 toward the $80/mt level seen on 1 September; a sustained VLSFO squeeze would push scrubber economics at Durban to a level that reshapes bunker procurement across the South African coast.