Diesel prices to stay elevated into spring 2027, fuel executives warn

U.S. trucking companies should brace for elevated diesel prices through at least spring 2027, energy and truck stop executives warned Tuesday at the second annual WEX OTR Summit in Jacksonville, Florida. Chuck Ryan, president and CEO of AMBEST, a nationwide network of independent truck stops and service centers, said prices are unlikely to fall significantly before spring — even if global crude oil prices retreat.

"I don't see it coming down until spring, and that's if things start to work out on the war front," Ryan told FreightWaves and Transport Topics after the panel.

The math is unforgiving. The U.S. had more than 300 operating refineries in 1980; today it has roughly 128. Surviving facilities have expanded capacity, but Ryan argued the distribution network hasn't kept pace with demand. Ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine continue to disrupt global energy supplies on top of that structural squeeze.

"If oil dropped today, that does not mean the price will go down," Ryan said during the panel. "In fact, I think we will have this problem for the next several months, whether the wars end or not."

The session, "At the Pump & On the Margin: Navigating Fuel Price Volatility and Network Optimization," drew more than 115 attendees — trucking executives, fuel providers, technology companies and other transportation representatives — to the Sawgrass Marriott Golf Resort & Spa. Will Bowen, senior director of merchant services at WEX, moderated. Panelists came from AMBEST, Circle K, Maverik and Dow Jones Energy.

Why can't the supply system respond?

Ryan's answer: there's simply no slack left in it.

"There's no space in the pipelines. There's no space in the terminals," he said. "There's no place to put additional products."

He warned that refineries running near maximum capacity are vulnerable to unexpected shutdowns or maintenance failures. Denton Cinquegrana, director of energy research at Dow Jones Energy, put numbers on that risk: U.S. refineries have been operating above 95% of capacity, leaving almost no flexibility if major facilities suffer unplanned outages. He flagged refinery maintenance schedules as a concern heading into 2027, and cited attacks on Russian refineries and shipping restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz as persistent threats to global diesel supply.

Restoring shuttered capacity isn't a quick fix either. Ryan estimated rebuilding portions of older California refineries could cost $1 billion to $1.5 billion, depending on the facilities and equipment involved. Major oil companies would likely need to share the financial risks of redevelopment projects at that scale, he said.

Could winter make it worse?

Yes, and the Northeast is the pressure point. Ryan noted diesel and heating oil compete for the same pipeline capacity during cold snaps.

"If it gets cold in the northeast, pipeline space is going to be consumed by heating oil, and diesel oil won't make the line," he said. "So then you could get into reliability issues."

Cinquegrana added that the closure of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery after a 2019 fire cut regional refining capacity, leaving the Northeast dependent on fuel shipments from other regions. Refined-product pipelines are already heavily allocated, so moving extra fuel by truck or marine vessel would work — at significantly higher cost. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, he said, restoring inventories and normal shipping patterns could take several months. Ryan's advice to fleets: diversify fuel supply options rather than depend on a single provider.

What should fleets do about fuel buying?

Panelists had a blunt message: chase net price, not headline discounts. Meghann Erhart, chief commercial officer at Maverik, described a customer who shifted purchases to a provider offering a substantially larger discount, only to discover Maverik's actual net price was 7.5 cents per gallon lower.

"The depth of that discount could show that you're buying well and you may be leaving money on the table," Erhart said.

Ryan urged fleets to review fuel purchasing agreements regularly and understand the difference between cost-plus and retail-minus pricing. "If I were a fleet, I would make sure that they get the people in the room who they're doing business with on a regular basis, not just once a year," he said. Rob Nordlander, head of B2B commercial sales at Circle K, added that drivers don't return to truck stops with malfunctioning pumps, failed payments or poor facilities — total merchant value matters.

AMBEST bets on data and selective growth

On the business side, Ryan said AMBEST expects to add roughly 90 locations in 2026 on top of more than 580 branded fuel locations and about 120 heavy mechanical service centers — nearly 700 sites combined. "We'll grow to 90 this year. And we'll continue to do that," he said, though the organization is being selective: "We're slowing it down so that we don't grow beyond our capabilities."

Founded in 1988 by 25 independent truck stop owners to give smaller operators purchasing power, AMBEST now counts independents as well as 7-Eleven, Circle K and Casey's among its members. Ryan credited data analytics as "probably one of the biggest drivers for our growth," helping identify network gaps and member opportunities. Competition from convenience store chains and regional fuel retailers investing in high-flow diesel locations keeps pressure on. "The pie is not getting bigger. The demand is what it is, so it's how much of that share will you have," Ryan said — adding that independents' edge is service: "Our superpower is the ability to act locally."

His closing directive to truck stop owners was to modernize: "You have to operate a truck stop like it should in 2026, not in the previous century." For carriers already wrestling with rising operating costs and uncertain fuel surcharge recovery, the message from Jacksonville is to plan for tight diesel markets well into 2027.