US trucking contract rates have reached a seasonally adjusted index reading of 274 — their highest level since the freight recession ended and well above where they stood over the prior two years. That's the headline from the latest SONAR data reviewed by FreightWaves' Craig Fuller, and it says shippers are locking in higher committed rates even while the market hunts for a peak-season catalyst that keeps failing to show up.

The mechanics matter here. Contract rates catching up to spot rates typically signals tightening supply-demand conditions, which is good news for carriers and a warning shot for shippers who waited too long on renewal timing. Spot rates did accelerate to all-time highs earlier in 2025, cooled off, and have only recently bent upward again heading into November. The market, in short, is leaning forward without committing.

What about diesel?

Not much help. Diesel prices topped $6.50 per gallon — an all-time record — before pulling back modestly. To put that in context, a truck burning roughly 20,000 gallons a year faces a six-figure fuel bill at those levels, so even a small retreat matters to carrier margins.

Fuller cited uncertainty around a reported Russia supply deal and ongoing drone strikes on Russian refineries as factors muddying the outlook. He also flagged discussions of a potential U.S. export ban that has weighed on prices. "We're seeing it drop a little bit, but not much," Fuller said. "Not a whole lot of relief."

Is demand actually driving this market?

Fuller's verdict: not really. "As Arrive Logistics pointed out in their market update, their summary update, they don't believe that demand is driving the overall freight market," he said. "It is really related to capacity and really relative supply and demand."

The volume data backs him up. Freight volumes ran above both 2024 and 2023 levels through the first half of 2025, then slipped below those comparable periods. Fuller attributed the softening partly to AI data center-related freight shifts. The drag in food and beverage is more unusual, driven by higher inflation, reduced SNAP benefits, and GLP-1 medications curbing consumption. When appetite suppressants show up in a trucking analysis, you know the demand story has gotten strange.

What does this change for shippers and carriers?

For shippers: contract renewals are getting pricier, so the window to lock 2026 terms at pre-squeeze levels is closing. For carriers: rising contract rates with flat demand means the gains come from capacity leaving the market, not freight arriving — a fragile foundation. For brokers: the spread between contract and spot continues to compress, squeezing the arbitrage.

The key number to watch is the tender rejection index, which sits at 1,373. That's elevated compared to freight-recession lows and above year-ago levels, but nowhere near the robust readings that would confirm peak season has actually arrived. The index heated up meaningfully in June before cooling, and the industry is waiting for another leg higher. "Everyone is looking for this number to heat up, and that's when we know we're at peak season," Fuller said.

The bottom line

With November approaching, the market remains in a wait-and-see posture. Contract rates are firming, diesel is still historically elevated, and capacity utilization is tighter than a year ago — but no single data point yet confirms peak-season volumes have materialized. If tender rejections take their next leg higher, expect spot rates to follow and contract negotiations to sharpen quickly. If they don't, the 274 reading starts to look like a ceiling, not a floor.