DHL’s growth broadens as forwarding gains and contracts jump 42%

DHL Group’s Global Forwarding unit is winning air-freight share faster than its main rivals, while the group’s Supply Chain division reported new contracts up 42% in 2025, with data centres among its growth sectors.

Those gains point to a broader growth mix, but they do not remove DHL’s dependence on Express. The report summary states: “Express still earns about 60% of group profit,” even as Express faces a growing divide between volume growth and profitable growth.

Where is DHL’s growth coming from?

The full third-quarter report is the key document because the headline numbers were pre-released three weeks earlier and the central issue is where DHL’s growth is coming from. The available evidence points to three distinct sources:

• Express: Still earns about 60% of group profit, but the summary flags a growing divide between shipment volume and profitable growth.
• Global Forwarding: Is winning air freight faster than its main rivals in a tight market, indicating share momentum rather than merely participation in a growing market.
• Supply Chain: “New contracts are up 42% this year,” with data centres among the division’s growth sectors.

The evidence remains directional rather than complete. The report summary does not define whether “new contracts” measures contract count, booked value, annual contract value or another measure. It also gives no customer count, margin, shipment volume or data-centre project pipeline.

The 42% rise therefore signals commercial momentum, but it cannot establish how much revenue or profit DHL will retain without a stated denominator and contract values.

The wider global express and parcels market grew 5.8% in 2025, reaching €577.3bn ($642.6bn). Spread across 365 days, that equals roughly €1.58bn ($1.76bn) in daily market revenue. The measure includes express and parcels, so it does not isolate air freight, ocean forwarding or DHL’s own forwarding volumes.

The available figures also do not show whether the 5.8% expansion came from price, shipment count, weight or service mix. That distinction matters for shippers: market-value growth can reflect higher rates rather than more physical capacity, while volume growth can produce little profit if margins weaken.

What does easing air capacity change?

The report summary links Global Forwarding’s faster gains with a tight air-freight market. It also raises an open question: how much of DHL’s momentum survives as tight air capacity eases. The preview describes easing capacity as a tailwind, although its truncated sentence does not identify who receives that benefit.

For shippers, more capacity could improve availability; for carriers, it could weaken the tight-market conditions under which Global Forwarding is gaining share. Neither outcome appears in the disclosed numbers.

For forwarders, the risk is a reversal of current air-freight share gains if capacity returns before new business is secured. DHL’s 42% Supply Chain contract increase offers a possible offset, but the available disclosure does not connect those contracts to air freight.

Can 42% contract growth offset Express concentration?

Not on the evidence available. A 42% increase in new Supply Chain contracts is not directly comparable with Express’s roughly 60% share of group profit: one measure concerns recent contract momentum, while the other concerns the existing profit base. Dividing the two would produce a meaningless ratio.

Supply Chain’s data-centre exposure adds a named demand sector to the disclosure. The summary provides no sector volume, customer, geography or lane breakdown. It therefore does not show how much of the 42% belongs to data centres or whether the gains extend beyond them.

The figures also omit trade-lane detail, TEU, tonnage, dollars per FEU, capacity percentages, rate or yield data, and port information. Those omissions limit any test of the air-freight claim because a broad revenue total cannot reveal the lanes, equipment or utilization levels behind DHL’s performance.

The report summary names no executive, main rival or port, so it supports no management quotation or competitor-specific comparison. The available disclosure supports a conclusion about direction, not a complete measure of the profitability or durability behind DHL’s gains.

What should shippers watch next?

The next test is what the full third-quarter report’s underlying division data shows. Shippers and forwarders should look for forwarding volume and yield, the duration and value of Supply Chain contracts, data-centre contributions, and evidence of how DHL’s air-freight share changed as capacity loosened.

If Global Forwarding retains share as capacity eases and Supply Chain converts its 42% contract increase into disclosed revenue and profit, DHL’s growth base will look less concentrated; if not, Express’s 60% profit contribution will remain the controlling fact.