DHL, FedEx and UPS Now Carry Over Half of Global Air Cargo Tonnage

Three express carriers — DHL, FedEx and UPS — now move more than half of all international air cargo tonnage, according to DHL, a concentration that would have seemed implausible a generation ago and that is now compounding through rates, hub infrastructure and forwarding market share.

The figure sits inside a market that IATA, as reported by Stat Times, expects to total 71.6 million tonnes in 2026. A majority of that volume flowing through three integrated networks reframes who sets the commercial terms in air freight: the integrators own the aircraft, the ground networks and, increasingly, the customer relationships end to end.

What do DHL's Q2 2026 numbers show?

DHL Group posted Q2 2026 revenue of €22.4 billion, up 13% year on year, with group EBIT up 30% to €1,858 million and net profit up 24%. The express division did the heavy lifting:

• DHL Express Q2 revenue: €7,132 million, up 21.5%
• DHL Express Q2 EBIT: €1,200 million, up 64.3%
• H1 Express EBIT: €1,999 million, up 43.5%, at a 15.2% EBIT margin
• Time-definite international daily volume: up 3.7% in H1

FreightWaves reported the group's operating margin rose one percentage point to 8.3%, the full-year EBIT forecast was lifted to $7.43 billion, and group cash flow jumped 73% to $655 million.

The gap between a 64.3% EBIT increase and 21.5% revenue growth tells the real story: costs did not keep pace with pricing power. DHL is candid about the mechanism. Air cargo capacity constraints generated a positive earnings effect of roughly €150 million for DHL Express in the quarter. Where belly-hold space is scarce and freighter slots are hard to secure, carriers that own or contract their own lift capture the premium — and shippers pay it.

The pattern extends beyond the express arm. DHL Global Forwarding, which competes directly with independent forwarders, grew air freight volumes 5.5% in H1, led by Asia and Latin America lanes, with Q2 EBIT of €240 million, up 21.9%. DHL is capturing value at multiple points in the same supply chain — a detail that should concern any third-party intermediary watching its channel narrow.

Why does the Louisville hub ranking matter?

DePaul University's Chaddick Institute, cited by Air Cargo News, found that UPS's hub at Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport has displaced FedEx Memphis as the world's largest express cargo hub on both daily flights and tonnage capacity:

• Peak-day flights: UPS Louisville 202.3 vs FedEx Memphis 164.7
• Tonnage capacity: Louisville holds 33.4% more than Memphis on peak days

Joseph Schwieterman, lead author of the Global Cargo Hub Review, said: "In conversations about express air cargo hubs, people often immediately think of FedEx's Memphis hub, but UPS's Louisville hub has elbowed its way to the top."

Hub capacity is the physical ceiling on network volume. If UPS now leads on that measure, it can absorb additional market share without proportionate new investment — a structural advantage that compounds alongside, not behind, the financial one.

What does this mean for airlines, forwarders and shippers?

For passenger airlines, tight capacity supports belly yields in the short term, but the structural leverage over long-term freight pricing shifts toward integrators with their own aircraft and networks. For forwarders without their own lift, the squeeze is more direct: DHL Global Forwarding's 5.5% volume growth is volume that did not flow through independent intermediaries, and margin pressure strengthens the case for long-term capacity agreements.

For e-commerce shippers, the integrators' reach now spans the entire chain. DHL Supply Chain revenue rose 7.7% to €9,223 million in H1, and DHL eCommerce struck a strategic partnership with CTT Group covering parcel logistics and e-commerce in Portugal and Spain — trunk-haul air freight through last-mile delivery under one roof.

The caveat deserves stating plainly: the over-half-of-tonnage figure comes from DHL itself, and the €150 million capacity windfall is a tightness benefit, not a durable moat. Should belly capacity return or freighter orders land, that premium compresses.

On the response from conventional carriers, the signals are muted. Stat Times reports that per IATA, airlines intend to commit $4.5 billion to Sustainable Aviation Fuel in 2026 — a bet on cost structure and regulatory advantage rather than a direct fight for freight share. Whether that proves sufficient differentiation remains unresolved, and the integrators' grip on tonnage, earnings and infrastructure tightens in the meantime.