Contship Jet Sinking Crystallizes It: Owners Start Refusing Black Sea Orders

Shipowners are actively seeking to refuse charter orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, and their lawyers are already probing charter-party escape routes. That is the commercial aftershock of the sinking of the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned Contship Jet off Bulgaria last week — the moment, in Lloyd's List editor-in-chief Richard Meade's words, when concerns about war spreading west to NATO coastlines turned into hard decisions.

"We understand that analysts are being approached over potential charter-party disputes, as some owners are essentially seeking to refuse orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports," Meade said. "That suggests to me that the calculation is shifting from how much the risk costs to whether owners, charterers and crews are prepared to accept it at all."

How bad is it in the Western Black Sea?

The numbers are stark. Maritime security firm Ambrey has recorded 696 security events in the Western Black Sea alone, about 537 of them in Ukrainian waters. Between Oct. 5 and Oct. 28, it logged 10 strikes on ships at sea — eight by aerial drones, two by uncrewed surface vessels, all attributed to Russia.

"From July onwards, the cadence of the operations by both Russia and Ukraine has been unprecedented," said Tomas Alexa, senior analyst at Ambrey. "With the start of Operation MoLoChKa, we have seen a significant rise in the number of attacks."

Those strikes have hit merchant vessels in Romanian, Bulgarian, Turkish and Georgian waters. Three of those countries are NATO members. The alliance's eastern flank is now, functionally, a war zone for shipping.

What does this change for an owner with no Ukraine link? Ambrey still rates the threat of direct strikes on unconnected vessels as negligible to low. But it raised the risk for vessels conducting search-and-rescue from low to moderate — rescue ships risk secondary strikes, secondary explosions, misidentification. Overall, Alexa said, "there is a heightened risk to all vessels across the Western Black Sea at the moment."

The targeting logic

Ambrey considers a vessel to fit the targeting profile if its owner, manager, charterer, cargo, or last or next port of call has a Ukrainian link. The Contship Jet attack suggests cargo possibly bound for Ukraine may be enough on its own. Ambrey is still investigating whether the boxship carried dual-use cargo ultimately destined for a Ukrainian port.

Russia has described Ukraine-bound cargo ships as carrying military or dual-use cargo. Ambrey has seen no evidence of that on any vessel struck in Romanian or Bulgarian waters. Nine of the 10 vessels attacked there can be linked to Ukrainian trade, Alexa said.

"Whilst there is a greater geographical spread of attacks against merchant vessels into Romanian and Bulgarian waters, the Russian intent remains the same," he said. "It is to degrade the capability of Ukrainian authorities or Ukraine itself to import and export cargo, and that assessment stands."

Ports choked, grain trapped

Russia's strikes on Ukrainian ports and infrastructure have cut Ukraine's ability to export from its seaports by up to 95%, according to Ambrey data. Traffic has been pushed west — Ambrey tracks a significant shift toward Sulina and the Danube River Delta ports, which themselves sit near where earlier sporadic attacks occurred.

The grain pile is now visible in the numbers. In August, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service office in Kyiv cut its Ukraine grain export forecast, citing the deteriorating Black Sea security picture. FAS projects Ukraine's ending stocks of wheat, corn and barley will roughly quadruple in the 2026/27 marketing year, to almost 25 million metric tons — even as production of the three grains hits its highest level since 2021/22, the season the war began. Ukraine's agriculture minister has warned that continued disruptions could require 10 to 12 million metric tons of additional temporary storage.

Russia and Ukraine together account for about 27% of global wheat exports. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have climbed 20% in the first nine months of the year, reaching their highest level since 2023.

Crews start balking

Alexa said owners and operators are contacting Ambrey in growing numbers. Two years ago, risk assessments covered Ukrainian ports, Russian ports and eastern Turkey. Now demand has shifted sharply west.

"We now definitely see a heightened number of requirements for assessments for Romanian and Bulgarian ports and western Turkey, which was previously not the case," he said. "We are also aware that a number of crew members, masters, are now also reluctant to sail to Romania or Bulgaria. So that definitely is a heightened threat perception, and it is justified."

The International Transport Workers' Federation has called Russia's war on Ukraine the deadliest conflict for seafarers since World War II.

Is a corridor deal coming?

Don't hold your breath. Ambrey assesses that President Volodymyr Zelensky and his team are reaching out to Turkish and Indian operators, and the Indian government, to re-establish the grain corridor or propose a Black Sea hostilities halt. The Kremlin, though, wants a cessation of strikes not just against grain vessels but across all energy infrastructure — plus additional requirements. Alexa warned Russia sees degrading Ukrainian exports as a win in the economic battle.

Ambrey expects the current pace to continue for the next couple of months; Ukrainian attacks have slowed but could resume if Russia doesn't stop. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Thursday that intensifying attacks ahead of winter are further endangering navigational safety, and warned world powers must not let the region become a new front in the war.

"As always with Russia and Ukraine, until everything is agreed, nothing is agreed," Alexa said. For charterers and owners still working Constanta, Constanța-area anchorages and the Danube mouth, the working assumption is that refusals, disputes and reroutings will keep building through winter.