By James Calloway

ClarkSea hit $66,421 a day last week — its third consecutive record, more than 30% above the December 2007 peak of $50,714, Clarksons data show. The cross-sector index, founded in 1990, now trades near three times its long-term average.

Tankers do most of the pushing. Gas carriers, bulkers, containerships and car carriers all chip in.

Yet the industry still doesn't live through its greatest boom. That's the verdict from Affinity Shipping, which has stripped inflation out of average daily earnings across a basket of conventional shipping sectors stretching back to the 1970s.

How do decades stack up in real terms?

In nominal dollars, the 2020s win comfortably. Affinity puts decade-average daily earnings at around $28,000. Adjusted to 2026 dollars, the ranking flips.

• 1970s: ~$55,000 a day
• 2000s: ~$38,000 a day
• 2020s: just above $30,000 a day

Third place. Not first.

What does the cash-flow picture show?

Shipping economist Martin Stopford estimates the industry has banked roughly $3.1 trillion since 2021 — more than during the famous 2004–08 supercycle, Splash reported earlier this month. The qualifier: the industry itself is far larger today, and a single vessel's earnings don't compare cleanly across half a century of price drift.

What came after the last great booms?

The pattern troubles Affinity researchers. Spectacular decades have spawned ugly ones.

• 1970s → 1980s: real earnings fell to ~$27,000/day
• 2000s → 2010s: ~$17,000/day — the weakest of six decades analyzed

"If anyone mentions a new paradigm, kick them out of your office and burn their business card," Affinity cautioned.

Is this cycle different?

In places, yes. The current boom has rolled rather than exploded. Containers surged first, then car carriers, gas shipping and product tankers. Crude tankers now post the most spectacular numbers. Much of the prosperity traces to inefficiency, not demand — covid, sanctions, Ukraine, Red Sea diversions, and most recently Hormuz.

Rival broker Hartland called it supply-driven, not the usual demand-led cycle. "Ships are being forced onto much longer voyages to avoid various conflict zones," Hartland noted, citing market talk of four resale VLCCs rumored sold at a record $250m each.

How does ordering stack up?

The orderbook tells its own story. Global capacity on order sits at around 22% of the existing fleet today, versus 55% in 2008. Tankers fare better — or worse, depending on view. The tanker orderbook stands at 26.5%, compared with 51.8% around the turn of 2007 and an extraordinary 104.5% in 1971.

"[E]ven as we bask in the extraordinary freight markets of the last five years, it's arguable that we're not at peak shipping," Affinity researchers argued.

The same Affinity dataset extends to newbuild prices, contrasting today's contracting dollar against inflation-adjusted peaks of earlier cycles.

For shippers, carriers and forwarders, the question now isn't whether the ClarkSea can climb further. It likely can. The real question is whether today's decade settles as the third-best on record — or reverts to the mean that punished the 1980s and 2010s.