China-India spot rates drop up to 20% as festival demand fades

Spot rates from China to India have fallen 10%-20% over the past month as festival-driven import demand loses momentum, with Shanghai-JNPA bookings now around $3,200 per 40ft box, down from about $3,800.

Shanghai-Chennai rates have slipped to $3,200 per 40ft from $3,900, according to new data secured by The Loadstar. The cooling is broad-based across Asian origin hubs.

Hong Kong-JNPA sits near $3,600 per 40ft, down from $3,800 a month ago. Singapore-JNPA is around $3,400 per 40ft, 5% lower than in September. Hong Kong-Chennai has dropped 15%, to $3,300 per 40ft.

Ex-India spot rates and surcharges are also easing, with container lines sensing a gradual slowdown in Indian westbound volumes and revisiting their surcharges accordingly.

Is this a cyclical downturn?

Not yet, say carrier executives. Intra-Asia operators argue the correction is moderate and that Asia-India and Asia-Middle East trades remain caught in port challenges and delays across the region.

"Our Asia-India-Middle East vessels continue to operate under a lot of operational strain on the Persian Gulf end," one carrier source told The Loadstar. "Delays at Khor Fakkan are not getting any better."

Closer to home, vessel bunching has added considerable berthing-window pressure at JNPA (Nhava Sheva) recently, compounding sliding schedule reliability across Asian services.

What's driving the trade?

The fundamentals remain bullish. Indian imports from China rose 23% year on year by value in the first three quarters of this year, underscoring the strength of the flows that propelled resurgent container demand on the lane.

The rebalancing matters for carriers too. India-China trade has historically favoured Beijing by a massive margin, but Indian exports to China have gained measurable pace in recent years on the back of accelerated bilateral negotiations — giving regional carriers reasonably better cargo yields on the backhaul.

The contrast with the past is stark. Freight from India for intra-Asia operators was previously in negative territory, often involving $5 per container just for insurance coverage.

The demand boom has pulled fresh capacity into the tradelane, mainly intra-Asia services connecting into JNPA and Chennai over recent months.

How are India's exports holding up?

India's fiscal year 2026-27 first-half exports were up 18.5% year on year by value, according to provisional data, despite supply chain turmoil plaguing major trade routes. Growth came mainly from electronics, engineering goods, chemicals and agricultural products.

"The strength of the first-half performance lies in the diversity of its growth drivers," said SC Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.

"Sustaining this balance, while expanding our market reach, will be crucial in the second half of the financial year," he added.

For shippers, the window of softer spot pricing may be narrow: with Persian Gulf delays unresolved and bunching still squeezing berthing windows at JNPA, carriers hold the operational argument for reinstating surcharges the moment westbound volumes firm again.