Brent crude opened the week above $105/bbl as US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked over maritime access to the Strait of Hormuz, while war-hit transits through the chokepoint run at a fraction of pre-war volumes.

Only 21 vessels attempted to transit the strait on Saturday — 18 inbound and eight outbound — according to market intelligence provider Windward. That compares with 11 crossings on Friday and a pre-war average of 140 daily transits. Saturday's figure represents roughly 15% of normal traffic through a waterway that normally carries a substantial share of the world's seaborne crude.

The AIS data points to deeper distress in outbound Gulf trades. Nine of the 21 vessels moved in dark mode, meaning their transponders were switched off. "A 50% dark rate, with both outbound transits dark indicates vessels leaving the Gulf remain the most reluctant to broadcast, while inbound traffic stays largely AIS-visible," Windward reported.

For tanker operators and charterers, the dark-mode spike signals rising insurance, sanctions and security risk premiums on Gulf-bound and Gulf-origin cargoes. For refiners and cargo interests in Asia, the collapse in transit volumes tightens crude supply just as Brent pushes past $105.

The price move follows US President Donald Trump's rejection last week of a peace proposal from Tehran, Axios reported. Iranian mediators arrived at the UN General Assembly in New York with a plan for a seven-day truce tied to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. "They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make," Trump told Axios. "It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago."

Diplomatic channels remain open, according to Trump, who said he expects talks to resume next week. Negotiators are pressing Iran for concessions on its nuclear program to restart ceasefire discussions with Washington and prevent the conflict from escalating further, the Wall Street Journal reported. In his UNGA speech, Trump said he was weighing whether "to annihilate" Tehran's government completely to stop it from procuring a nuclear weapon.

Military enforcement is already reshaping regional shipping patterns. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has redirected 122 commercial vessels, disabled more than three and boarded two to prevent ships from entering or departing Iranian ports, it said. The scale of redirections suggests operators serving Iranian and Gulf trades face growing operational constraints beyond the strait itself, with screening and interdiction risk extending to legitimate third-party cargo.

Diplomatic pressure for a reopening is mounting. Eighty countries have signed a joint statement calling for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessel navigation. "We call for the full restoration of free transit in accordance with navigational rights and freedoms, without delay," Bahrain's foreign minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani said in the statement.

The combination of a $105-plus Brent, transits at 15% of normal and half of outbound traffic going dark points to a market pricing in prolonged disruption rather than a quick resolution. Unless the expected resumption of US-Iran talks next week produces a breakthrough on strait access, freight rates and war-risk premiums on Gulf trades are set to stay elevated.