Black Sea wheat loadings collapsed to 1.6m tonnes in September — down 77.8% from the 7.3m tonnes shipped in the same month last year, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by AXSMarine and published by Greek shipbroker Ursa.

The fall is brutal even by the standards of this war. September volumes dropped 45.6% from August, landing at the weakest September level since 2017. That timing matters. August and September are normally peak season for Black Sea grain, when the new harvest hits the market. Instead, loadings cratered at the exact moment exporters should have been busiest.

The nine-month picture is barely better. Black Sea wheat loadings reached 36.3m tonnes across January to September, down 12.2% year-on-year and the second-lowest total for that period since 2017.

Why is volume falling this fast?

Because the maritime war has spread beyond the approaches to Russian and Ukrainian ports, and it is now hitting the alternative corridors that were supposed to absorb the shortfall.

Earlier this week, the Turkish-owned general cargo ship Royad Mammadov, loaded with corn from Ukraine's Danube port of Izmail and bound for Italy, sank after a drone attack in Romania's exclusive economic zone. Two seafarers died.

A day later, two more merchant ships were attacked in Bulgaria's EEZ. The Togo-flagged Alfa Watan sank. The Palau-flagged Able, carrying wheat, caught fire; rescuers pulled 18 seafarers from the vessel, two seriously injured.

Maritime security consultancy Ambrey assessed it highly likely that Russian forces carried out the attacks, though Bulgarian authorities have not officially established responsibility. Ambrey's warning was blunt: "Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be treated as safe by default."

What does this change for Ukrainian exporters?

Plenty. Ukraine exported just 2.4m tonnes of agricultural products in September — 46% of its potential export volume, according to agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi. The Danube carried 1.3m tonnes, or 54% of shipments, with rail taking most of the rest.

Vysotskyi's assessment is the number to watch: without access to its main Black Sea ports, Ukraine's alternative routes can handle no more than 45% to 50% of potential agricultural exports. That is a hard ceiling on how much grain the country can move.

The Danube corridor itself is degrading. Low water and higher fuel prices have pushed grain freight between Moldova's Giurgiulesti and Romania's Constanta to around $75 per tonne, against $15 to $35 previously. Barges are sailing with smaller cargoes. Capacity tightens further with every constraint.

Russia's Baltic pivot is not working either

Russia has redirected significant grain volumes north after attacks crippled its southern export outlets. Wheat exports through the Baltic hit a record 1.4m tonnes in September, roughly 60% of the country's wheat shipments.

It hasn't been enough. Russia's overall wheat exports are still down more than 40% year-on-year.

Ust-Luga and Vysotsk have become vital alternative gateways, with exporters repurposing terminals that previously handled fertilisers and coal. But railway capacity and wagon availability cap further growth. Latvia and Lithuania are tightening scrutiny of Russian grain transiting their ports, and Ukrainian drones have already demonstrated they can reach Russian infrastructure on the Baltic coast.

Supply is fine. Logistics are not.

The disruption is not a harvest problem. USDA projections cited in Ursa's research put combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year at 114m tonnes — virtually unchanged from last season.

Exports tell a different story. Combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat shipments are forecast to fall from 62.1m tonnes in 2025/26 to 55.5m tonnes in 2026/27, a 10.6% decline. The grain exists. The corridors to move it do not, and with attacks now reaching Romanian and Bulgarian waters, the risk premium on Black Sea and Danube tonnage — already reflected in freight rates running at three to five times former levels — looks set to stay embedded into the peak export window.