Angola Bets $2 Billion on Life After Oil as Non-Oil GDP Hits 86%

Angola is directing a $2 billion investment push into non-diamond mining and rare earths by next year, using this year's oil windfall to finance a structural break from an economy where crude still accounts for about 90% of export revenue. Citigroup, which flagged the strategy, says the government is channelling petroleum income into agriculture, tourism and energy while stability improves.

The scale of the shift is measurable. The African Development Bank estimates the non-oil sector's share of GDP rose to 86% in 2025, up from 77% in 2019 — a nine-point swing in six years. For a country long treated as a petrostate, that marks a rapid rebalancing of the real economy.

Why are banks suddenly interested in Angola?

International lenders are moving in as the diversification story gains traction. South Africa's Absa Group is establishing a representative office in the country, while Standard Bank has raised its stake in its local subsidiary to 75%, according to Bloomberg.

Kenya's Equity Group plans to expand into Angola by 2030, explicitly targeting emerging trade routes for critical minerals. Grant Carson, who oversees markets where Citi has no physical presence, including Angola, said improving political and economic stability was making the country more attractive for long-term investment.

For carriers, forwarders and mining-logistics operators, the message is that Angola is becoming a bankable corridor rather than a cash-and-risk outpost.

What does the Lobito Corridor upgrade mean for freight?

The flagship infrastructure project is the Lobito Corridor, a US-backed railway stretching 1,100 miles and undergoing an $866 million upgrade. The line carries copper and cobalt from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to the Atlantic port of Lobito for international markets.

A proposed additional 500-mile connection would link Zambia's Copperbelt directly to the railway, shortening the haul for some of the world's most sought-after battery metals. That positions Angola as a competing export gateway for Congolese and Zambian minerals that currently move largely through southern African ports.

How big is the agriculture play?

The government is negotiating the transfer of up to 800,000 hectares — roughly 2 million acres — of farmland to Brazilian-run agricultural firms. The aim is to make agriculture a primary growth engine as oil's share of the economy shrinks.

The financing behind it is substantial:

• A $1.45 billion agreement with the World Bank covering processing, logistics and agricultural services.
• A separate $1.3 billion deal to support Angola's first large-scale urea and ammonia production facility.
• A targeted $1 billion in tourism infrastructure investment by the end of 2026.

Together, these commitments total close to $3.75 billion in agriculture- and tourism-linked spending on top of the $2 billion mining and rare-earth target.

What growth does the government expect?

The IMF forecasts Angola's economy will grow 4.4% this year. The government is more optimistic, projecting 5.5% growth in 2027, driven by a 7% expansion in the non-oil economy.

Those numbers depend on execution — land transfers, rail upgrades and fertilizer plants all carry long lead times — but the direction of travel is clear: oil revenue is being converted into logistics, mining and agricultural capacity before the crude windfall fades.

If the Lobito upgrades and the Copperbelt connection proceed on schedule, Angola could consolidate its position as the western gateway for central African critical minerals within the decade.