Africa Supplies 68% of CORSIA-Eligible Carbon Projects as Airlines Face Credit Squeeze

Airlines need between 193 million and 220 million carbon credits to meet their first-phase CORSIA obligations covering 2024-2026, yet only around 43 million credits have been tagged as CORSIA-eligible in registries. That is 19-22 percent of anticipated demand. The supply gap is the hard commercial reality behind new analysis from carbon data platform Sylvera, which finds Africa emerging as the dominant force on the other side of the equation.

African countries account for 17 of the 25 distinct projects and programmes with CORSIA-eligible credits globally — 68 percent of the total. Madagascar alone leads the world with 44 published authorisations, ahead of Nigeria and Rwanda. For carriers and forwarders budgeting compliance costs under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, the geography of eligible supply now runs disproportionately through African registries.

CORSIA, established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), requires airlines to offset growth in emissions from covered international flights using eligible carbon credits. Compliance exposure is not optional. Scarcity of tagged credits means airlines that wait risk buying into a thin, potentially expensive market.

How did Africa build this position?

African governments have moved quickly to build the regulatory machinery required for international carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Of the 124 bilateral Article 6.2 agreements and memoranda of understanding signed worldwide, 34 involve African countries. Ghana leads all seller countries in the number of agreements signed.

The continent also accounts for 80 of the 119 published Letters of Authorization globally — documents that allow carbon credits to trade internationally and count towards compliance obligations such as CORSIA. Madagascar's 44 authorisations top the global table, with Nigeria and Rwanda behind it.

The shift is stark by historical standards. Under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, the predecessor to today's carbon market arrangements, Africa hosted just over 2 percent of registered projects. It now anchors the majority of CORSIA-eligible supply.

Why can't airlines just buy more credits?

They can, but not yet. Hundreds of millions of additional credits are potentially eligible under CORSIA rules. Before airlines can use them for compliance, they must clear further regulatory hurdles, including host-country authorisation and safeguards against double counting.

That pipeline gap defines the market for the next two years. Potential supply exists on paper. Credible, usable supply does not — and that imbalance supports prices for the limited pool of tagged credits.

Carmen Alvarez Campo, International Policy Lead at Sylvera, said: "Africa is rapidly becoming one of the most important players in international carbon markets. Governments are establishing the frameworks needed to unlock investment, creating opportunities to help meet growing demand for carbon credits."

She added: "With airlines facing substantial offsetting obligations and eligible supply remaining limited, Africa has a significant opportunity to help close the gap. The priority now is translating regulatory progress into investment and credible supply, supported by the transparency and robust accounting needed to build market confidence."

What happens at COP31?

The findings land ahead of COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, running 9-20 November, where implementation of international carbon markets will be a key focus. Sylvera flags persistent barriers: national greenhouse gas inventories, reporting systems and consistent accounting practices across African jurisdictions remain uneven.

The summit offers a venue to strengthen cooperation, address those accounting gaps and accelerate investment in credible reduction and removal projects across the continent. For airlines, the practical stakes are simple. How fast African authorisation pipelines convert potential credits into tagged, CORSIA-usable supply will shape compliance costs through the end of the first phase in 2026.