Airbus sees demand for 2,670 freighters as cargo fleet grows 46% by 2045

Airbus now expects the world to need 2,670 freighter aircraft over the next two decades, with the dedicated cargo fleet growing 46% from roughly 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 by 2045. That is the headline number in the manufacturer's 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast, published on 21 October, and it spells out where the capacity is coming from: conversions, not factory-fresh metal.

The split matters for anyone planning cargo capacity. Of the 2,670 aircraft, Airbus forecasts 1,700 will be passenger-to-freighter conversions and 970 newly built freighters. Both figures are up on the previous forecast, which ran to 2044 and counted 1,670 conversions against 935 new-builds. Roughly 64% of future freighter supply, in other words, will be recycled passenger jets.

Why conversions carry the forecast

The mechanism is straightforward. Instead of buying a new aircraft, an operator strips a passenger cabin and rebuilds it as a cargo hold. That means reinforced floors, a cargo loading door and freight-handling systems. Airbus sells conversion options across its A320, A321 and A330 families, covering a spread of cargo missions from narrowbody feeder work to widebody regional lifts.

What does this change for freight forwarders and integrators? More feedstock converting to freighters usually means steadier capacity growth and more choice on mid-size lanes, at a lower capital cost than new-builds — a structural tailwind for express and e-commerce networks.

The A350F push into widebody territory

The new-build side of the ledger is where Airbus is making its boldest commercial play. The A350F, aimed at the long-haul cargo sector, has secured 34 orders this year, and certification activity with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is progressing, the company said. The aircraft completed its maiden flight on 29 September.

The specification sheet is built for heavy trunk routes. The A350F carries up to 111 tonnes of freight over a range of 8,700km, and its main-deck cargo door — at 4.3m wide — is, per Airbus, the industry's largest. The jet takes standard containers and pallets plus oversized items such as large aircraft engines, and Airbus promises lower fuel burn and CO₂ emissions than previous-generation freighters.

The target is unmistakable: the large widebody freighter segment, a market Boeing has long dominated. Airbus wants a bigger slice of it.

Where the aircraft will fly

North America and Asia-Pacific will soak up almost two-thirds of global demand, requiring 925 and 850 aircraft respectively. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States follow at 515, then Latin America (165), the Middle East (125) and Africa (90).

Airbus expects Asia-Pacific to remain the world's largest international air freight market. Traffic between Asia-Pacific and North America is the fastest-growing major corridor in the forecast, expanding 3.8% annually.

What's driving it

Three forces underpin the numbers: online shopping, expanding global trade and demand for faster deliveries. Freighters carry the time-sensitive, high-value cargo — consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, industrial equipment, aircraft parts — that doesn't sit well in a container ship's hold for five weeks.

Layer on retirements of ageing aircraft, and Airbus believes the combined effect sustains demand for thousands of additional freighters through 2045. For shippers on long-haul lanes, the bet is that widebody freighter capacity gets more competitive — just as the trans-Pacific corridor keeps tightening.