Global air freight rates fell 2.1% in the week to 12 October, as the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) tracked the predictable post-Golden Week dip out of China. The same index still stands 24.3% higher than a year ago, and sources told the TAC Index, the calculating agent for the Baltic indices, that the market remains firm heading into peak season.

The more striking signal sits behind the headline number. Some AI hyperscalers — the large cloud providers building out data centre computing and storage — have not yet secured the cargo space they are predicted to need for the season.

That gap between demand pledged and capacity booked could push rates upward in the coming weeks, at a moment when most eCommerce suppliers and shippers with product launches have already locked in their space, according to sources who spoke with TAC. The competitive backdrop hardens as the northern hemisphere's winter approaches.

Where did rates move week-on-week?

The lane-level picture diverged sharply from the global average.

• China outbound rates to both Europe and the US dipped week-on-week.
• Hong Kong's outbound index rose 0.2%, defying the general China softness.
• South Korea outbound rates also rose.
• Shanghai fell 2.1%; India rates also eased.
• Asia–Europe lanes were broadly weaker than intra-Asia and transpacific routes.

Fuel is compounding the pressure on carriers. The IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor has climbed 111.2% year-on-year, and airports, suppliers and carriers are still negotiating the ongoing Middle East disruption — jet fuel has become, in TAC's phrasing, the talk of the town across the supply chain.

How tight is capacity this peak season?

Surcharges have arrived earlier and heavier than veterans of the trade can recall. Kelly Martinez, President at ePost Global, said: "The peak surcharges are the most I've seen in the industry, and started the earliest I've seen in the industry. So I think capacity on any part of the process is definitely a challenge this year."

That squeeze is already visible in Europe. Outbound European lanes gained week-on-week, led by transatlantic routes to the US and lanes to China, India, Australia and South Africa. Sources confirmed to TAC that Europe-to-US 'pass-through', or transhipment business, is increasing.

Not every European lane rose. Rates fell to Japan, Mexico and the UAE. Capacity options are also narrowing at the Gulf end of the map: hundreds of flights have been cancelled at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh since Houthi attacks on Saudi aviation infrastructure last weekend.

Airport-level data mirrored the divergence. Frankfurt gained 3% week-on-week, while London Heathrow jumped 12.1%, boosted by transatlantic and Middle East traffic.

What happened in North America?

North American lanes to South America gained, led by a sharp rise in Miami International's southbound routes, and MIA also picked up business across the Atlantic. Rates to the UK, China and South Korea fell.

The sharpest correction came out of Chicago. After what TAC described as 'hefty gains' on outbound routes in recent weeks, Chicago rates dropped 29% week-on-week, with steep falls to Asia. Mexico–Europe rates also declined — though in both cases, rates remain well up year-on-year.

For shippers and forwarders, the reading is mixed but tilted tight. The post-holiday dip out of China offers a brief window on those lanes, but the unbooked hyperscaler demand, record-early peak surcharges and a 111% fuel spike all point the same direction once the seasonal volumes land: upward pressure on rates and on capacity through the peak.