Air Cargo Demand Up 7.7% in September, But Jet Fuel Doubles

Global air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September while jet fuel prices stood 103.4% above their year-earlier level — a gap that IATA says is making profitable flying harder even as volumes climb.

Figures released by the International Air Transport Association on 29 October show total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), up 7.7% against September 2025, with international operations up 8.6%. Capacity grew far more slowly: available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs) rose 2.7% year-on-year, and 3.3% on international services. The industry-wide cargo load factor climbed 2.2 percentage points to 47.9%.

"Air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions," said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. "Stronger global trade and manufacturing provided a supportive backdrop, while AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific."

Her warning was blunt on costs: "The challenge is cost. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, and yields have not kept pace. There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging."

What does this mean for shippers and carriers?

For shippers, tight capacity plus soaring fuel points one way: upward pressure on spot rates, particularly on the Pacific. For carriers, load factors above 47% mask a margin squeeze. For forwarders, the picture splits — strong trans-Pacific flows to sell, and Middle East corridors to manage down.

The demand backdrop remains solid. Global trade grew 3.6% year-on-year in August, extending the run of consecutive monthly expansions to 42 months. The Global Manufacturing Output PMI rose 0.7 points to 53.8 and the New Export Orders Index gained 0.5 points to 51.9 — both five-year highs. Fuel is the pressure point: jet fuel prices jumped 17.5% month-on-month in September alone.

Which regions led the growth?

North American carriers posted the strongest performance, with demand up 11.8% on capacity growth of just 0.8%. The region's load factor jumped 4.3 percentage points to 43.9%. North American carriers held 24.6% of industry CTKs in 2025.

Asia-Pacific airlines, the largest market at 35.8% of CTKs, grew demand 8.6% on 4.9% capacity growth, lifting load factors 1.7 points to 50.7%. Details elsewhere:

• Latin America/Caribbean: demand +6.7%, capacity +7.6%, load factor down 0.3 points to 34.3%; 2.9% of industry CTKs
• Africa: demand +4.7%, capacity −1.2%, load factor up 2.7 points to 47.0%; 2.1% of industry CTKs
• Europe: demand +4.5%, capacity −1.6%, load factor up 3.2 points to 54.6% — the highest of any region; 21.4% of industry CTKs
• Middle East: the weakest region, demand +3.8% on capacity up 7.0%, load factor down 1.4 points to 44.0%; 13.2% of industry CTKs

Europe and Africa both grew load factors by shrinking capacity — a clear sign carriers are defending yields rather than chasing volume.

Which trade lanes moved the market?

Asia–North America led all lanes, up 17.0% year-on-year, its eighth consecutive month of growth. The lane carries 23.5% of industry CTKs on a full-year 2025 basis. Within Asia followed at +10.2%, its 35th straight month of growth, holding 7.3% of the industry.

Europe–North America grew 9.3% — a fifth consecutive month of growth — and accounts for 13.5% of the industry. Europe–Asia rose 6.0%, extending its run to 43 consecutive months, on a 21.5% share. Africa–Asia grew 2.6% after one month of gains, holding 1.3% of the industry.

The Middle East tells the opposite story. Europe–Middle East traffic fell 18.0%, its seventh consecutive month of contraction, on a 5.2% industry share. Middle East–Asia dropped 10.2%, also seven straight months of decline, accounting for 7.4% of the industry.

What happens next?

Demand fundamentals — 42 months of trade expansion, five-year-high PMIs, AI-driven Pacific volumes — show no sign of cracking. The variable is fuel. If jet fuel stays above double last year's level and yields keep lagging, expect carriers to keep cutting capacity on thin routes and shippers to face firmer pricing on the lanes that are growing.