AI Hardware Now Powers Three-Quarters of Global Goods Trade Growth

Seventy-six percent of global goods trade growth in the first quarter of 2026 traced back to semiconductors, networking kit and the rest of the AI hardware stack — up from 42 percent across 2025, according to the newly renamed DHL Globalization Tracker, released today with NYU Stern's Center for the Future of Management.

For ocean carriers, forwarders and integrators, that single data point rewrites the freight playbook. The DHL report draws on more than 30 million cross-border data points and finds global goods trade in H1 2026 grew faster than any six-month window in the past 15 years outside the Covid rebound.

"The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs," said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. "Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time."

What does the AI surge change for carriers and forwarders?

It reorients the highest-margin lanes. Chip, server and optical-component flows from East Asia to North America and Europe now anchor demand on transpacific and Asia-Europe routings, while traditional consumer-goods volumes drift sideways.

The DHL tracker shows East Asia and the Pacific logged 24 percent trade value growth in the first five months of 2026, with intra-regional share climbing from 57 percent to 60 percent as Asian supply chains consolidate around AI demand.

That concentration pulls capacity with it. Air freight yields on Asia-U.S. tech corridors have tightened accordingly, and forwarders report spot rates nudging higher even as belly-hold capacity from passenger carriers returns. Ocean carriers are seeing stronger reefer and high-spec container demand from server and data-center buildouts, particularly at hubs serving Northern European and U.S. East Coast hyperscaler campuses.

Why have tariffs not derailed the cycle?

U.S. tariffs hit their highest levels in decades, yet the global impact landed softer than feared. The U.S. accounts for only 13 percent of world imports, and roughly half of U.S. imports were exempt from the latest increases as of August 2026.

Most trading partners declined to retaliate broadly, instead chasing new bilateral agreements to diversify market access. The Strait of Hormuz disruption from the Iran war hit harder where it hit. Saudi Arabia's trade fell 37 percent and the UAE fell 7 percent in the first five months of 2026 versus the same period in 2025. Outside the Gulf, rerouting absorbed most of the shock.

Is U.S.-China decoupling actually splitting global trade?

Less than the headlines suggest. U.S.-China bilateral trade slipped from 3.5 percent of world trade at its 2015 peak to 1.6 percent in early 2026, and their share of cross-border investment sits below 1 percent. But U.S. allies have kept trading with China, and indirect Chinese inputs inside goods from Vietnam, Mexico and others mean the real U.S. reliance has barely moved through 2024.

"The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war," said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern. "The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock."

What does Africa tell us about resilience?

Sub-Saharan Africa logged 11 percent trade value growth in the first five months of 2026, putting it third behind East Asia (24 percent) and Europe (12 percent). It follows the world's fastest growth in H1 2025, defying tariff and geopolitical drag.

"The narrative around Africa often focuses on challenges," said Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa. "What this data shows is that trade across the region continues to grow, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and market disruption."

For forwarders, the read is practical. SME-led African exports are scaling into new markets faster than the typical frontier-market pace, opening lanes that European integrators and Middle Eastern hub operators can monetize before the global majors lock them in.

What's the forward view for shippers?

DHL's tracker projects global goods trade to expand by an average of 3.4 percent per year through 2029, comfortably above the 2.7 percent of the previous decade. Globalization itself hit a record 25.8 percent on the report's cross-border flow index in 2025, with information flows the most globalized and people flows the least. Shippers should plan for a freight cycle where AI hardware, not apparel or automotive, sets the marginal price signal through the rest of the decade.